After Obama’s Reelection, The “Grand Bargain” Is Next On The Docket

Barack Obama remains the President of the United States for the next four years. What is on the domestic agenda in American politics next?

The “Fiscal Cliff” and the “Grand Bargain”

Republicans in Congress plan to hold the approval of the federal budget hostage, as they did last time. What do they want? The continuation of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and severe cuts to social programs that benefit the less fortunate in the name of deficit reduction. Most interesting about this is that the freshly reelected president and Democrats have signaled their willingness to largely go along with Republicans.

In what is known as the “Grand Bargain,” Democrats including Obama have proposed to slash programs such as Social Security to decrease the federal deficit, in order to avoid the “fiscal cliff,” i.e. the blockade of the federal budget by the GOP. Other than one might think from the Democrats’ campaign rhetoric, the focus is not on tax increases for corporations and the wealthiest individuals.

To understand why Obama would support policies that seem to run counter to his campaign promises of even a few weeks ago, namely to put his support behind the struggling American middle class, one has to reach back into his not-too-distant past. And there it lies, in the open: Obama is a neoliberal. 1 2 3

It is visible in the people he appointed to his economic team during the first term in office, the ways in which the financial industry was not heavily regulated after the financial crisis, and the way a public option was given up on early in favor of an industry-based model during the health care reform negotiations.

The irony of it all is that Obama the neoliberal, who pretends to be an economic progressive (liberal) during election season, is decried as everything from a socialist to a communist by the far-right commentators on talk radio and the Republican propaganda machine of Roger Ailes and Rupert Murdoch that is Fox News.

Economically, Obama’s current proposals represent but a gradual difference to what a Romney/Ryan presidency would have wrought, but it is not qualitatively different. The interests of the super-wealthy are not touched by Obama and the Democratic Party.

The swift willingness to compromise with a Republican Party that has been playing hardball since day one (of Obama’s first term), combined with the Obama administration’s notable toughness towards its progressive supporters, reoccurring at the beginning of this second term, makes one wonder whether this is after all a game of good cop, bad cop. If Republican proposals seem extreme from a middle class perspective, the Democrats’ slightly less harsh plans all of a sudden look friendly in comparison. But it is a view from within a moving train.

[Update] My judgment of the situation was perhaps a bit too harsh. According to the New York Times (December 2), the Obama administration now forces the GOP to come to the table first with a serious offer, not the other way around like last time. Obama now wants to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans in order to reduce the federal deficit.

Read more:

Divided House Passes Tax Deal in End to Latest Fiscal Standoff.” (Jennifer Steinhauer, New York Times, 2013/01/01)

“GOP’s Latest Fiscal Cliff Offer: Permanent Extension Of Bush Tax Cuts For The Wealthy.” (Igor Volksky, Think Progress, 12/12/2012) – Business as usual.

Following the Debt Talks-Interactive Feature.” (Alicia Parlapiano and Josh Keller, New York Times, 2012/12/06) – A nice graphic overview of what Democrats and Republicans each offer in the current talks on the federal debt and budget.

Criticized as Weak in Past Talks, Obama Takes Harder Line.” (Peter Baker, New York Times, 12/02/2012)

The cold, hard realities behind Medicare cuts.” (Politico, 12/02/12)

Inside the talks: Fiscal framework emerges.” (Politico, 11/29/12)

[Fact check] “Facts Falling Off the Fiscal Cliff.” (FactCheck, 11/14/2012)

Fiscal Cliff? Obama Urged Not To Panic.” (Dan Froomkin, Huffington Post, 11/13/2012)

[Op-ed] “Why the Grand Bargain Is One-Sided and Totally Unfair.” (Cenk Uygur, Huffington Post, 11/12/2012)

White House Grand Bargain offer to Speaker Boehner Obtained by Bob Woodward.” (NBC News, 11/11/2012)

[Op-ed] “Let’s Not Make a Deal.” (Paul Krugman, New York Times, 11/08/2012)

Liberals fear grand bargain betrayal if President Obama wins.” (Carrie Budoff Brown, Politico, 11/02/2012)

Obama vows debt-cutting ‘grand bargain,’ immigration reform in Des Moines Register interview.” (Olivier Knox, Yahoo!News, 10/24/2012)

  1. Op-Ed: “Kill Lists and Giant Triplets: Obama and the Neoliberal Government.” (Tolu Olorunda, CounterPunch, 11/08/2012)
  2. Obama 2006—”Too many of us have been interested in defending programs as written in 1938.″ (Gaius Publius, AmericaBlog, 05/01/2012)
  3. “No Economic Team of Rivals On Obama Staff: Rubin’s Manic Neoliberals Dominate.” (Steve Clemons, New America Foundation, Huffington Post, 02/28/2012)

Last Minute Update On The Presidential Election

The Huffington Post calculates that Obama gets 271 electoral votes, and Romney gets 191 electoral votes (a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win) (November 6). A summary can be found here.

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog estimates a 92% chance of winning for Obama (November 6).

Real Clear Politics’ estimate: Obama 201 electoral votes, Romney 191 electoral votes  (November 6).

Alright, that’s all for now. Not that my endorsement matters in any way, but I hope that tomorrow, the next President of the United States will be the current one. Let’s see if that happens.

You can find more background information on the 2012 presidential election in my previous posts, for instance here.

 

 

Round 3: Romney vs. Obama, The Rematch

Tonight (October 16, 2012), President Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney will have their second debate, this time at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. In their last debate, Romney came across better prepared and ‘won’ on style, not necessarily on substance. The big question concerning this debate is therefore: Can Obama be a match to Romney this time as a performer?

You can watch the debate here:

Here is the debate, courtesy of the YouTube Politics channel:

If you are short on time, here is the debate in 100 seconds, courtesy of Talking Points Memo:

The YouTube election hub has a live stream of the debates here.

You can also watch the complete second Obama-Romney debate at the New York Times, which has a nifty running transcript next to the video.

You can also watch the complete second Obama-Romney debate at the Washington Post, which has a nifty running transcript next to the video.

2012 Election Central has a schedule of all upcoming debates here.

Fact-checking:

Why The Charge That Obama Is ‘Anti-Business’ Is Ridiculous, In Three Charts.” (Think Progress, 10/22/2012)

At Last Night’s Debate: Romney Told 31 Myths In 41 Minutes.” (Think Progress, 10/17/2012)

Debate fact check: Hofstra presidential debate.” (Politico, 10/17/2012)

Debate fact check: Revisiting claims on jobs, education.” (USA Today, 10/17/2012)

Fact-checking Websites:

factcheck.org

politifact.com

Fact-checking taxes in the presidential race.” (PolitiFact, 10/15/2012)

Presidential Debate Fact-Check and Updates.” (New York Times, 10/16/2012)

[Infographic and analysis] “Obama’s Numbers: Statistical measures of the president’s term to date.” (FactCheck, 10/08/2012)

How to Prime Your BS Detection Skills Before the Presidential Debates.” (Lifehacker, 10/03/2012)

Debate Coverage:

All Post-Debate Polls Give Obama Clear Win.” (The Nation, 10/17/2012)

Analysis: With gloves off on TV, did rivals connect?” (USA Today, 10/17/2012)

‘Binders full of women’ meme spreads.” (Politico, 10/16/2012)

‘Binders full of women’: Romney’s four words that alienated women voters.” (Guardian, 10/17/2012)

Obama, Romney Campaigns Square Off in Debate Rematch.” (Wall Street Journal, 10/17/2012)

The second presidential debate: An aggressive rematch.” (The Economist, 10/17/2012)

Obama goes on offensive, turns debate with Romney into argument.” (Washington Post, 10/17/2012)

Second presidential debate: Six takeaways.” (Politico, 10/17/2012)

CNN Poll: Nearly half say Obama won showdown.“(CNN Political Ticker, 10/16/2012)

Romney stunned by debate moderator’s fact check on Libya attacks.” (The Raw Story, 10/16/2012)

5 Facts You Should Commit To Memory Before Watching Tonight’s Debate.” (Think Progress, 10/16/2012)

Debate Rules Bar Follow-Up Questions—From Everyone.” (Slate, 10/16/2012)

In second presidential debate, style is likely to trump facts.” (Los Angeles Times, 10/16/2012)

[Video] “[Green Party Candidate] Jill Stein Arrested Before Hofstra Debate, Campaign Reports.” (Huffington Post, 10/16/2012)

Presidential Debate: Five things to watch.” (Politico, 10/16/2012)

Town Hall Format Poses Risks for Obama and Romney.” (New York Times, 10/16/2012)

Candy Crowley’s role in debate questioned by Romney and Obama.” (Guardian, 10/15/2012) – Both candidates do not want follow-up questions from the debate moderator

Voters Divided Over Who Will Win Second Debate.” (Pew, 10/15/2012)

Voters Equally Favorable to Romney, Obama.” (Gallup, 10/16/2012)

German Language Debate Coverage:

[coming up]

Background information:

An update on the electoral map after the first presidential debate from Talking Points Memo (October 16, 2012):

[Infographic] Here you can find the electoral map from the New York Times.

3 states that may decide the election.” (Politico, 10/15/2012) – Ohio, Florida and Virginia

The Catholic ‘Swing’ Vote.” (Pew, 10/11/2012)

The Federal Bailout That Saved Mitt Romney.” (Rolling Stone, 08/29/2012)

[Podcast] “Science and the 2012 Election.” (Point of Inquiry, 10/15/2012)  – A discussion about the candidates’ positions on matters of science

Debates: Leaked Debate Agreement Shows Both Obama and Romney are Sniveling Cowards.” (Gawker, 10/15/2012)

[Podcast] “All That Stuff Before The Debate.” (My History Can Beat Up Your Politics, 09/12/2012) – A discussion about the intensely scripted nature of presidential debates

[Video] “As Obama, Romney Hold First Debate, Behind the Secret GOP-Dem Effort to Shut Out Third Parties.” (Democracy Now, 10/03/2012)

Do the US presidential debates matter?” (BBC News, 10/03/2012)

Election 2012: Your Free Ticket to a Popular Stanford Course.” —Stanford University lets you watch a lecture series about this year’s presidential election and broader themes behind political campaigns in the US (via Open Culture)

First Debate Often Helps Challenger in Polls.” (New York Times, 10/03/2012)

[Audio] “How Politicians Get Away With Dodging The Question.” (npr, 10/03/2012)

[Podcast] “How Presidential Debates Work.” (Stuff You Should Know, 11/10/2011)

How Presidential Debates Work.” (HowStuffWorks, 10/13/2010)

[Op-Ed] “Kill Lists and Giant Triplets: Obama and the Neoliberal Government.” (truthout, 09/08/2012) – A leftist critique of Obama’s neoliberal policies and continuities of the Bush-era “War on Terror.”

[Memes] “2012 United States Presidential Election.” (Know Your Meme) – The Internet is even capable of exploiting the funny bits of presidential elections

German Language Background information:

Das Streben nach Glück – Anspruch und Wirklichkeit: Amerika vor der Wahl.” (Deutschlandradio Kultur, 28.10.2012) – Die Diskussionsrunde nimmt Bezug auf Mark Twains kürzlich nach hundert Jahren der Geheimhaltung veröffentlichten “Geheimen Biographie” sowie David Remnicks Obama-Biographie “Die Brücke – Barack Obama und die Vollendung der schwarzen Bürgerrechtsbewegung”, im Original “The Bridge – The Life and Rise of Barack Obama” (2010).

Debattenkultur: Warum wir Amis keine kritischen Denker sind.” (Zeit Online, 02.10.2012)

October Halftime: And Now For Something Completely Similar

In the press landscape, the Biden-Ryan debate last week (October 11, 2012) was for the most part counted as a strong comeback for the Obama campaign, following the president’s lackluster performance against Mitt Romney the week before (October 3, 2012). Biden pointed out the glaring factual flaws of his opponents arguments. You can find some links detailing these in my last post here. So what is left for the Romney campaign between now and the second presidential debate tonight in Hempstead, New York (October 16, 2012)? For one thing, it is damage control. In an attempt at portraying himself as a compassionate conservative, as opposed to the long-time follower of Ayn Rand that he is, Paul Ryan went to a soup kitchen in northeast Ohio for a photo op showing him and his family cleaning some dishes. That did not go so well, as the artificiality of the whole maneuver was quite apparent:

Charity president: Paul Ryan “did nothing” at soup kitchen photo-op.” (CBSNews, 10/15/2012)

Charity president unhappy about Paul Ryan soup kitchen ‘photo op’.” (Washington Post, 10/15/2012)

According to the head of that apolitical charity, Ryan entered the soup kitchen without permission. And here is how he characterized what followed:

He [Ryan] did nothing. He just came in here to get his picture taken at the dining hall.

On top of that, the pots and pans Ryan and his family ‘cleaned’ for the photo op “did not appear to be dirty.”

As of October 13, 2012, Ohio leans slightly towards Obama (51% versus 46%), according to a PPP poll.

[Infographic] Here you can find the electoral map from the New York Times.

Round 2: Ryan vs. Biden (10 October 2012)

The second televised debate of the 2012 presidential elections is scheduled for tonight (Thursday, 11 October, 2012), featuring Vice President Joe Biden and challenger Paul Ryan. After the last debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney, which a majority of commentators from all sides saw as a victory (at least on style) for Romney, it is going to be quite interesting to see, in my opinion, what debate strategy the Obama camp will choose this time around.

9 Ways to Watch the Vice Presidential Debate Online.” (Mashable, 2012/10/11)

C-SPAN has the debate here.

The YouTube election hub has a live stream of the debates here.

You can also watch the complete first Biden-Ryan debate at the New York Times, which has a nifty running transcript next to the video.

Here is the full debate, courtesy of the YouTube Politics channel:

Here is a brief update from Talking Points Memo about the state of public opinion polls before the Biden-Ryan debate (2012/10/10):

Fact-checking Websites:

factcheck.org

politifact.com

Veep Debate Violations: Ryan, Biden rough up the facts in their one and only meeting.” (FactCheck, 10/12/2012)

Fact-checking the vice presidential debate.” (PolitiFact, 10/11/2012)

Vice-Presidential Debate Fact-Checks and Updates.“(New York Times)

What Everyone Needs To Know Before Watching The VP Debate.” -Paul Ryans positions and actions prior to the debate, with linked sources. (Think Progress, 10/10/2012)

How to Prime Your BS Detection Skills Before the Presidential Debates.” (Lifehacker, 10/03/2012)

Debate Coverage:

[Op-ed] “Blame Obama For Libya, But Don’t Blame Bush For 9/11.” (Slate, 10/16/2012) – “[T]he Republican Party line [in 2002] was that anyone who accused the president of neglect or deceit was unpatriotic.”

Biden, Ryan Square Off on Foreign Policy, Economy in Debate.” (Wall Street Journal, 10/12/2012)

[Op-ed] “The Vice Presidential Debate: Joe Biden Was Right to Laugh.” (Rolling Stone, 10/12/2012)

Vice presidential debate: 7 takeaways from Danville.” (Politico, 10/12/2012)

6 Must-See Moments from the Vice-Presidential Debate.” (Daily Beast, 10/11/2012)

Biden Pins Ryan Down On Taxes: ‘Oh, Now You’re Jack Kennedy?’” (Talking Points Memo, 10/11/2012)

Biden v. Ryan: The Old Pro Takes On the Lying Kid.” (Alternet, 10/11/2012)

Joe Biden Addresses 47 Percent During Vice Presidential Debate.” (Huffington Post, 10/11/2012)

Joe Biden goes after Paul Ryan in lone VP debate.” (Politico, 10/11/2012)

Joe Biden’s Passion Trumps Paul Ryan at Vice-Presidential Debate” (Daily Beast, 10/11/2012)

[Video] “Woman At VP Debate Calls Obama A Communist.” (Talking Points Memo, 10/11/2012)

5 things to watch in VP debate.” (Politico, 10/11/2012)

Six Things to Watch For in Biden-Ryan Debate.” (New York Times, 10/10/2012)

German Coverage:

US-Wahlkampf: Biden punktet im TV-Duell gegen Ryan.” (Zeit Online, 12.10.2012)

TV-Debatte der Stellvertreter im US-Wahlkampf – Biden dominiert das Unentschieden.” (Süddeutsche Zeitung, 11.10.2012)

Background information:

Pre-Debate, Biden, Ryan Share Lackluster Favorable Ratings.” (Gallup, 10/11/2012)

Vice Presidential Debates Rarely Influence Voters.” (Gallup, 10/10/2012)

[Podcast] “When Veeps Attack.” (My History Can Beat Up Your Politics, 10/07/2012) -A discussion of the history of vice presidents and their challengers in American presidential debates

[Podcast] “How Presidential Debates Work.” (Stuff You Should Know, 11/10/2011)

How Presidential Debates Work.” (HowStuffWorks, 10/13/2000)

German Language Background information:

Das Streben nach Glück – Anspruch und Wirklichkeit: Amerika vor der Wahl.” (Deutschlandradio Kultur, 28.10.2012) – Die Diskussionsrunde nimmt Bezug auf Mark Twains kürzlich nach hundert Jahren der Geheimhaltung veröffentlichten “Geheimen Biographie” sowie David Remnicks Obama-Biographie “Die Brücke – Barack Obama und die Vollendung der schwarzen Bürgerrechtsbewegung”, im Original “The Bridge – The Life and Rise of Barack Obama” (2010).

Debattenkultur: Warum wir Amis keine kritischen Denker sind.” (Zeit Online, 02.10.2012)

Scripted Reality: The 2012 TV Debates Between Romney and Obama

Tonight (October 3, 2012), the first TV debate between President Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney in Denver, Colorado was will be broadcast on American TV and on the Internet.

2012 Election Central has a schedule of all upcoming debates here.

The YouTube election hub has a live stream of the debates here.

You can also watch the complete first Obama-Romney debate at the New York Times, which has a nifty running transcript next to the video.

Here is the debate divided into five parts, courtesy of the YouTube Politics channel:

Part 1:

Part 2:

Part 3:

Part 4:

Part 5:

 

Fact-checking:

Suddenly Centrist: The New Moderate Mitt Romney.” (Think Progress, 10/10/2012)

The Lying Precedent.” (New York Times Editorial Page, 10/10/2012) – Not particularly about fact-checking per se, but a compilation of video clips, including ads from the Obama campaign, illustrating how Mitt Romney changes his political positions opportunistically throughout the campaign, from “severely conservative” to “moderate.”

Romney Wants Voters To Believe He’s A Moderate. It’s A Little Late For That.” (The New Republic, 10/08/2012) – Op-Ed arguing the same point as the New York Times editorial above.

At Last Night’s Debate: Romney Told 27 Myths In 38 Minutes.” (Think Progress, 10/04/2012)

Romney Goes On Offense, Pays For It In First Wave Of Fact Checks.” (npr, 10/04/2012)

Fact-checking Websites:

factcheck.org

politifact.com

Fact-checking the Denver presidential debate.” (PolitiFact, 10/03/2012)

How to get the facts during the presidential debate.” (PolitiFact)

Presidential Debate Fact-Check and Updates.” (New York Times)

How to Prime Your BS Detection Skills Before the Presidential Debates.” (Lifehacker, 10/03/2012)

Debate Coverage:

A Clash of Philosophies.” (New York Times, 10/04/2012)

Romney goes on offense, forcing Obama to defend record.” (Washington Post, 10/04/2012)

Romney’s Threat to Big Bird Sows Confusion Abroad, and Feeds It at Home.” (New York Times, 10/05/2012):

“Most Americans think public broadcasting receives a much larger share of the federal budget than it actually does [polls and data linked in article].”

Romney Promises To Cut Taxpayer Funding For PBS (But Says He Still Loves Big Bird).” (Forbes, 10/04/2012):

“That [funding for PBS through the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB)] [i]s less than 1% of the budget. Way less. It’s about 1/100th of a 1%.”

The federal budget in the fiscal year 2011 was $3.69 trillion, according to the New York Times.

Colorado presidential debate: 5 things to watch.” (Politico, 10/03/2012)

Obama and Romney, in First Debate, Spar Over Fixing the Economy.” (New York Times, 10/03/2012)

Obama-Romney Debate: Mitt Romney Stays Light On Detail.” (Huffington Post, 10/03/2012)

Pundits Hammer Obama’s Debate Performance.” (Huffington Post, 10/03/2012)

Romney Backs Away From Own Tax Plan.” (Talking Points Memo, 10/03/2012)

[Poll] “Romney Maintains Economic Edge Heading Into Debates.” (Gallup, 10/03/2012)

German Language Debate Coverage:

Präsidentschaftswahlkampf: Romney punktet im Fernsehduell gegen Obama.” (FAZ, 04.10.2012)

TV-Duell Obama Romney: Präsident ohne Passion.” (Zeit Online, 04.10.2012)

Background information:

[Podcast] “Science and the 2012 Election.” (Point of Inquiry, 10/15/2012)  – A discussion about the candidates’ positions on matters of science

[Podcast] “All That Stuff Before The Debate.” (My History Can Beat Up Your Politics, 09/12/2012) -A discussion about the intensely scripted nature of presidential debates

[Video] “As Obama, Romney Hold First Debate, Behind the Secret GOP-Dem Effort to Shut Out Third Parties.” (Democracy Now, 10/03/2012)

Do the US presidential debates matter?” (BBC News, 10/03/2012)

Election 2012: Your Free Ticket to a Popular Stanford Course.” —Stanford University lets you watch a lecture series about this year’s presidential election and broader themes behind political campaigns in the US (via Open Culture)

First Debate Often Helps Challenger in Polls.” (New York Times, 10/03/2012)

[Audio] “How Politicians Get Away With Dodging The Question.” (npr, 10/03/2012)

[Podcast] “How Presidential Debates Work.” (Stuff You Should Know, 11/10/2011)

How Presidential Debates Work.” (HowStuffWorks, 10/13/2000)

German Language Background Information:

Das Streben nach Glück – Anspruch und Wirklichkeit: Amerika vor der Wahl.” (Deutschlandradio Kultur, 28.10.2012) – Die Diskussionsrunde nimmt Bezug auf Mark Twains kürzlich nach hundert Jahren der Geheimhaltung veröffentlichten “Geheimen Biographie” sowie David Remnicks Obama-Biographie “Die Brücke – Barack Obama und die Vollendung der schwarzen Bürgerrechtsbewegung”, im Original “The Bridge – The Life and Rise of Barack Obama” (2010).

Debattenkultur: Warum wir Amis keine kritischen Denker sind.” (Zeit Online, 02.10.2012)

2012 Presidential Election: A Few More Weeks To Go, What Happened So Far?

With the 2012 Republican and Democratic party conventions behind a few weeks, and still some time to go until the actual presidential elections in November, let’s recapture what happened in the meantime.

After the Democratic National Convention, President Obama’s approval numbers increased slightly, a phenomenon known as the ‘convention bounce’ by pollsters.

Mitt Romney did not reap a convention bounce of that magnitude after the Republican National Convention.

How does the electoral map look after the conventions? Among the important swing states, Virginia and Ohio have become slightly more favorable to Democrats. That means 31 more electoral votes for President Obama.

Talking Points Memo explains (09/20/ 2012):

Read more here.

As Gallup reports, one in five swing state voters may change their vote on election day (09/21/2012).

According to a new CBS poll (09/26/2012), prospects look brighter for Obama at the moment in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida.

According to a new Washington Post poll (09/25/2012), Obama leads in Ohio and Florida.

Coverage of Ohio:

Ohio County A Historic Predictor Of State’s Vote” (npr, 09/29/2012)

Scramble For Ohio Has High Stakes For Romney” (npr, 09/29/2012)

At the same time, in important swing states like Florida or Ohio, a battle is fought over voter registration, with Republicans framing the issue as preventing voter fraud, while Democrats see it as an attempt at disenfranchising minority voters.

Florida’s voter purge explained” (Washington Post, 06/18/2012)

Voter ID laws: the Republican ruse to disenfranchise 5 million Americans” (Guardian, 08/10/2012)

Ohio Lawmaker’s Quest to Fight Voter Disenfranchisement” (PBS, 09/ 20/ 2012)

“GOP Quietly Hires Firm Tied to Voter Fraud Scandal for Work in Battleground States” (The Nation, 09/26/2012)

“RNC cuts ties to firm after voter fraud allegations” (Los Angeles Times, 09/27/2012)

As opposed to the situation in Germany, where there is a mandatory national ID (Personalausweis), which is used for identifying at the polling place, in the American system there is no such mandatory document. Citizens could so far identify with a host of other documents, such as driver’s licenses. Also, German voters do not have to register as supporter of a particular party prior to voting. Instead, they walk into the polling station, identify, and then cast their vote—nobody knows for whom. Thus, in the US, there is an incentive for parties to register as many voters for their side, and potentially to disenfranchise the other side’s supporters.

Here are developments in the Romney campaign, including amusing/worrying bloopers:

During a TV interview with ABC in mid-September, Romney estimated that a household income of $250,000 should be considered a “middle income,” one that would benefit from tax cuts, should he be elected president. In sharp contrast to Romney, the Census Bureau lists as a median income household those in the range of $50,000.

Still, as Gallup reports, one third of lowest income voters support Romney (09/18/2012).

On September 18, a secret recording of Romney at a fundraiser was leaked to Mother Jones magazine, in which Romney characterized 47% of Americans, which he believes are all Obama supporters, as “dependent on the government” and that his job was “not to worry about those people.” The day the recording was released, the Romney campaign put together an emergency press conference at 10:30 pm.

College students, for one, are not amused.

German Coverage:

US-Medien läuten Romneys politisches Ende ein” (Spiegel Online, 18.09.2012)

When the US Ambassador to Lybia and several embassy staff were killed in an attack by radical Islamists after an anti-Islam video went viral, Romney used the occasion to blame President Obama.

At a press conference, while discussing alternative energy sources, Romney praised Adolf Hitler’s idea of using liquified coal as a fuel source. This, of course, does not imply that Romney endorses any other of Hitler’s ideas, but might still be a somewhat unfortunate political move.

On September 19, while giving an interview to Spanish-language TV network Univision, Romney appeared to have tanned in order to appeal to Hispanic voters. Also, a Univision anchor stated that the Romney campaign demanded a favorable audience for the occasion.

On September 27, Mother Jones magazine published an old video of Mitt Romney as CEO of Bain Capital. In this flashback to the 1980s, Romney explains how Bain Capital “harvests” companies for profit.

And here is what happened in the Obama campaign:

Obama has difficulties in getting the approval of military veterans.

On September 23, Obama claimed in a TV interview that “Over the last four years, the deficit has gone up, but 90 percent of that is as a consequence of” President George W. Bush’s policies and the recession.” Fact-checking website PolitiFact rates this as ‘false.’

Indian tribes, with more clout and money, find an ally in Obama” (Los Angeles Times, 09/24/2012)

Obama Against the World” (Mother Jones, 09/24/2012) – How world events beyond Obama’s control might influence his prospects for reelection

A videotape from 2007 of then-Senator Obama after hurricane Katrina saying “the people down in New Orleans, they don’t care about as much” was found. (Politico, 10/02/2012)

10 quotes that haunt President Obama” (Politico, 10/02/2012)

I will do my best to keep up with the news and post updates continuously.

The 2012 Party Platforms

Party platforms outline how a political party sees itself at a certain moment in time. They are a document of what the party in question wants to stand for. In the US, political parties publish their platforms every four years prior to the presidential election.

News coverage:

Party Platforms Are Poles Apart in Their View of the Nation” (New York Times, 9/4/2012)

Here is the 2012 Democratic Party platform.

Key Points:

  • support of same-sex marriage (for the first time)
  • opposition to privatization of Medicare
  • opposition to privatization of Social Security
  • language dropped that says Jerusalem is the capital of Israel (because Palestinians also claim it as future capital)UPDATE (9/5/2012): Democrats put back in the notion that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, and a reference to God, after three (!) rounds of not-so-clear voice votes. Watch it here:http://youtu.be/bjdj6K3yoR8

    This happened after intense criticism from the Romney camp. The official US position is that the final status of Jerusalem is still a matter of negotiations. This is also why the US and other states have their embassies in Tel Aviv. Barack Obama, however, has voices his belief that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel.  Within the context of US elections, the new Democratic position is to be seen as an attempt to court conservative Jewish voters and Christian Zionists.”Democrats add Jerusalem and God to 2012 platform” (The Raw Story, 9/5/2012)
    Democrats reinstate “God” and Jerusalem language in party platform” (CBS, 9/5/2012)
    Democrats Restore Language Declaring Jerusalem Israel’s Capital” (New York Times, 9/5/2012)

The Republican Party discussed is currently discussing their latest political platform at the RNC convention in Tampa, Florida. It is available here not yet available.

Prior to its release, the New York Times already has some information concerning its content here and here. It is generally considered to be more conservative than previous platforms.

Key Points:

  • banning all forms of abortion
  • banning pornography (read about it here)
  • opposing Shari’a law (read about it here)

Over at the American Presidency Project, you may read the 2012 party platforms and earlier documents. Here is the 2008 GOP platform, and here is the 2008 Democratic platform. And even though elections mostly come down to a contest between Democrats and Republicans, there are third parties in the US, and they do have platforms, too.

Read the 2012 platforms of the Green Party here, Constitution Party here, and of the Libertarian Party here.

While observers are waiting for Mitt Romney’s big acceptance speech at the GOP convention, here is a flashback to April of this year, when Romney won the Republican primaries:

UPDATE: You can see Romney’s acceptance speech and more on the RNC convention in this blog post.

The Voting Rights Act of 1965: 47th Anniversary (2012)

Fourty-seven years ago, on August 6, 1965, President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act, which strengthened the rights of African Americans to cast their ballot—after highly-visible violent crackdowns on peaceful civil rights activists in Alabama and immense pressure in their aftermath.1 Even though the Fifteenth Amendment to the US Constitution, passed in 1870 as part of the Reconstruction Amendments shortly after the American Civil War, had on paper secured African Americans’ right to vote, the following century was marked by disenfranchisement through both legal tactics, such as literacy tests, but also mob violence, especially in the US South. In recent times, a push for stricter voter identification laws in some places has reignited the debate about voting rights.

Here is an excerpt of Johnson’s speech before Congress on the matter of voting rights in 1965:

Here is the full speech and its transcript at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center.

Further reading:

The Voting Rights Act of 1965:

Transcript of Voting Rights Act (1965) (ourdocuments.gov)
The Most Important Voting Rights Law In American History Turns 47 Today (Think Progress)
The Voting Rights Act: A 20th Century American Revolution (American Prospect)
The Voting Rights Act of 1965 (US Department of Justice)

The Voting Rights Act of 1965 and Recent Political Debate On Voter Identification Laws (some op-eds included):

Al Sharpton: Protecting the Voting Rights (LA Times)
Congressional Black Caucus Holds Faith Leaders Summit on Voting Rights (C-SPAN)
Charles Postel: Why voter ID laws are like a poll tax (Politico)
Eric Holder: Voter ID Laws Threaten Voting Rights (Huffington Post)
Eric Holder: The Right’s New Boogeyman (The Nation)
Eric Holder wades into debate over voting rights as presidential election nears (Washington Post)
Holder’s Racial Incitement (Wall Street Journal)
New Target In Voter ID Battle: 1965 Voting Rights Act (NPR)
Texas to test 1965 voting rights law in court (Reuters)
U.S. voting rights under siege (CNN)
The Voting Rights Act: Our Last Best Hope (Huffington Post)
Voting Rights Act: Remember, Celebrate and Protect (Huffington Post)
Voting Rights Act under siege (Politico)
Voting Rights, Voter Suppression and 2012
(NY Times)

  1. For Johnson’s track record on race, see Robert Caro, “Johnson’s Dream, Obama’s Speech.” NY Times, August 27, 2008.

Supreme Court Upholds Health Care Reform

On June 28, 2012, the Supreme Court upheld President Obama’s health care reform, stating that the individual health care mandate was a legal form of taxation. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. enabled the 5 to 4 vote by joining the liberal side of the court.

Because the Constitution permits such a tax, it is not our role to forbid it, or to pass upon its wisdom or fairness.
– Chief Justice John Roberts

This article from Politico has a handy chart that shows how the health care law looks like after the ruling.

The cause of repealing ‘Obamacare’ had been a key mobilizing issue for the GOP and the Tea Party Movement since the law was enacted in 2010.

Here is an incomplete collection of news articles on the Supreme Court’s ruling:

NY Times here, Washington Post here, Huffington Post here, Wall St. Journal here, Politico here and here (key quotes from the ruling), SCOTUSblog here, Think Progress here, USA Today here, Daily Beast here.

Politico’s analysis of Justive Roberts’ motivations can be read here. In brief, some professional observers think that the conservative-leaning Roberts’ surprising decision has to do with creating his own legacy, a “Roberts Court,” and deflecting critics’ arguments about a Supreme Court characterized by conservative judicial activism.

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who had introduced an almost identical individual health care mandate in Massachusetts as Governor, continues to campaign on repealing ‘Obamacare’ despite the fact that he had earlier advocated for the Massachusetts health care reform to become a model for national health care reform.

The Obama administration highlights this inconvenient fact in their campaign ads against Romney.

One of Romney’s arguments is that “Obamacare adds trillions to our deficits and to our national debt.” The fact-checking website PolitiFact rates Romney’s statement as ‘false.’

At Politiwhoops, a website of the Sunlight Foundation, you can read all the tweets deleted by politicians who were against the health care reform. Some of them falsely tweeted that the Supreme Court had repealed the individual mandate.

Historian Charles Postel Talks about the Tea Party Movement

Today, historian Charles Postel of San Francisco State University and a visiting scholar at Heidelberg University, visited American Studies Leipzig as part of the Fulbright lecture series to talk about the rise of the Tea Party Movement in the US.

Postel, who specializes in populist movements in America, sees the Tea Party Movement as driven by a convergence of two different forces: ideology and economic self-interest.

The Founding Myth: The Boston Tea Party

“The Destruction of Tea at Boston Harbor” by Nathaniel Currier, lithograph depicting the 1773 Boston Tea Party (1846), from Wikipedia

He mentioned the myth of the original Boston Tea Party of the eighteenth century in American folklore, which is widely seen as a tax revolt, but was, according to historians, much more complex, involving political ideas about freedom and economic self-interest of Boston merchants and smugglers.

In order to illustrate the anatomy of today’s Tea Party Movement, Postel noted that federal taxes are at the lowest level since sixty years and that tax levels for the highest income groups have declined even sharper than for the average taxpayer.

Ideological Roots: Cold War Hard Right Paranoia

Postel held that much of the ideology of the Tea Party Movement derives from anti-New Deal conservative movements of the Cold War Era, in particular the John Birch Society, who saw social programs such as Social Security, trade unions, and the Civil Rights Movement as communist subversion of America. The enemies of those anti-New Deal conservative Republicans were for the most part moderate Republicans of the time.

The John Birch Society, which was the first grassroots conservative movement in the US, achieved a victory in mobilizing for Barry Goldwater as Republican candidate in 1964.

Robert Welch, the founder of the JBS, even went so far as accusing Presidents Eisenhower and Kennedy as communist agents. In fact, anyone in favor of the New Deal and Civil Rights was seen as a communist.

In this video clip on YouTube, you can see Welch’s presentation (ca. 1965) of the JBS.

Other leading conservative intellectuals, such as William F. Buckley, distanced themselves from Welch and the JBS.

Welch and his allies, among them writer Leon Scousen, whose books have had a revival among Tea Partiers, built their own conservative movement on an anti-New Deal agenda.

For them, America’s fall from grace began in the early 1900s with the Progressive Movement’s social reforms.

The Birchers demanded the repeal of early twentieth century reforms, the Sixteenth Amendment, which allows for the federal government to raise an income tax, and the abolition of the Federal Reserve. They also demanded that the Seventeenth Amendment be repealed, which allows for the direct election of Senators. This was subsumed under the idea that America was a republic, not a democracy.

The Tea Party Movement picks up many of those ideas. It aims at repealing the remaining elements of the New Deal. It wants to abolish the Fed and for the reintroduction of the Gold Standard. It wants to repeal the 16th and 17th Amerndments. It argues that President Obama is a socialist and points to the Affordable Healthcare Act or ‘Obamacare.’

According to Postel, Obama is actually a centrist Democrat. A health care legislation similar to Obama’s was first proposed by President Nixon in 1974. For a long time, Republicans endorsed this idea.

The Tea Party Movement sees any regulation of the health care sector as socialism.

The Comeback of Bircher Rhetoric

If the rhetoric reminds of Joseph McCarthy and Barry Goldwater, that is, Postel says, because the John Birch Society has a revival.

Leon Scousen’s books are advertised regularly on Fox News by opinion hosts such as Glenn Beck.

Right-wing corporate lobbyists, including groups like FreedomWorks or Americans for Prosperity, but also think tanks, such as the conservative Heritage Foundation or the libertarian Cato Institute promote ideas similar to those of the Birchers.

Overall, the Cold War Hard Right has made a comeback, and it has gained the upper hand within the Republican Party.

Moderate Republicans have become a pariah within their party.

[Update]: I just stumbled upon a recent example of Bircherite Tea Party rhetoric. Congressman Allen West (R-FL) suggesting that 80 House Democrats are members of the Communist Party (article from The Raw Story).

The Politics of Self-Interest: Medicare Is Fine, But Only For Me

Besides ideology, politics of interest play an important role in the Tea Party Movement.

Postel sees this embodied in the Tea Party Movement’s opposition to health care reform as fight against ‘big government.’

The size of the federal government has remained relatively stable over the last decades. Most federal spending has been shrinking in the last thirty years. The two big exceptions to this are military spending and Medicare.

Most Tea Party supporters are on favor of higher military spending.

Regarding Medicare, typical Tea Party supporters—older, better educated, white males—have in the past most profited from government programs.

In other words, the Tea Party Movement mobilizes in the name of defending Medicare for themselves.

Tea Party figures such as Michelle Bachman have argued to the effect that Obama would take funds out of Medicare to give it to younger people.

Postel mentioned that the Paul Ryan Budget, favored by Republicans, illustrated this interest: those over fify-five would keep Medicare, while everyone else will have to shop in the insurance market with private vouchers.

The Politics of Inequality

The Ryan Budget also includes tax cuts for top earners and budget cuts for social programs.

This plan is proposed within the context of rising inequality within the US. While problematic for many, Postel noted that tens of millions of Americans have also benefited from rising inequality.

So far, Tea Party-influenced legislation at the state and local level has fostered inequality, with a clear anti-immigrant, anti-union, anti-reproductive health, and anti-voting rights agenda.

Currently, about twenty percent of Americans sympathize with the Tea Party Movement.

The Tea Party Movement has links to corporate lobbyists. Postel highlighted the Koch Brothers, the fourth wealthiest individuals in the US with an industry conglomerate in petrochemicals. The Kochs bankroll the Tea Party Movement through lobby groups such as Americans for Prosperity. They founded libertarian think tank the Cato Institute, and ALEC, a legal think tank. Fred C. Koch, father of Charles and David Koch, was a founding member of the John Birch Society.

Despite the involvement of the Kochs and others, Postel said that the Tea Party Movement cannot be called purely an ‘astroturf’ or fake grassroots movement.

Postel also held that while the mass media often emphasize the Tea Party Movement’s anti-elite rhetoric, there is not very much of it on closer look. Rather, all political movements in the US since the nineteenth century have used some form of anti-elite rhetoric, out of necessity.

Blowing Up The Social Contract

For Postel, the core agenda of the Tea Party Movement is “blowing up the social contract.” While in Europe there is general agreement about the validity of some form of social contract, even among right-wing populist parties, who want to limit the beneficiaries of that social contract, Tea Partiers want to end it. To American Tea Partiers, European right-wing populist parties might look statist, which is opposite to Tea Party ideology.

Many Tea Partiers call themselves ‘tenthers,’ in reference to the Tenth Amendment, which gives established the federal system giving states all rights not granted to the federal government. Postel noted that in the US, political movements have always swung for or against states’ rights and federal rights, depending on whether the legislation in question aligned with their particular agenda.

Postel ended his talk noting that, ironically, the Tea Party Movement has nationalized politics more than anything else in the recent past.

Charles Postel is currently working on a book chapter for an anthology on the Tea Party Movement.

Update:

Here is a video from American Studies Leipzig featuring an interview with Charles Postel after his talk: