The Obama Inauguration 2013 And My Mixed Feelings About It

The Obama Inauguration 2013: Round Two For The 44th POTUS

On January 20, 2013, Barack Obama was sworn in for the second time as President of the United States. Will he change course towards a more progressive political agenda this time, as opposed to the past four years? Naturally, it remains to be seen, but from observing his first term in office, I got the impression that there were many continuities from the previous administration.

[Please note: I will add some sources for various claims that I make in this article later, when I have more time. In the meantime, please confirm any information by doing a news search with your favorite search engine. I will also continuously add more links to news coverage of the inauguration and background information.]

Looking back at Obama’s first election

Like many Europeans—and of course many Americans, for that matter—I was very excited about the first black (biracial, mixed, pick your favorite term) American president four years ago. Any student of American history should be. True, the campaign buzzwords ‘hope’ and ‘change’ were by themselves meaningless appeals to emotion, crafted by brilliant campaign strategists, but candidate Barack Obama also filled them with concrete policy proposals in his campaign speeches.

Obama positioned himself as a unifier, but it is clear that a key selling point was “I am not Bush.” Indeed, Obama was many things that Bush was not: a black man, an intellectual, not a son of privilege, urban, sophisticated, a Christian but not a religious fundamentalist with an eschatological interest in the Middle East. There were high hopes that Obama would act differently and that his administration would repair some of the damage caused by his predecessor.

Obama’s first term and continuities from Bush/Cheney

While Obama is certainly more socially liberal than any of the top Republicans, a substantial departure from neoliberal economic policies and a neoconservative security architecture is barely noticeable, despite any claims of America having fallen to communism on January 20, 2009, available on the usual propaganda channels. Of course an American president is not a dictator and legislation is supposed to go through Congress.

However, from the outside it looked like this: From day one, a Republican front aggressively attacked Obama at every turn while the POTUS offered concession after concession, ultimately in vain. The only times that the soft-spoken Obama did not find it difficult to metaphorically wack political opposition with the big stick that Theodore Roosevelt suggested to carry around at all times (referring to foreign policy) was when his own progressive political base reminded Obama of his campaign promises. So here we are, four years later:

The “War on Terrorism”

The paradigm shift caused by 9/11 still remains, and the behavior of the Obama administration is perhaps a good reminder to take seriously the phrase ‘paradigm shift.’ Osama Bin Laden is dead, even though his death was but a symbol, needed for closure, a counter to the terrorists’ symbol of attacking the World Trade Center. But the confrontation is not over.

The central question for democracies is how to act while engaging in that battle. In retrospect, unfortunately, the Obama administration’s answers sound very similar to those of the Bush administration in many cases. Guantánamo Bay is still open, the practice of kidnapping terrorism suspects, euphemistically called  ‘rendition,’ has been increased, the drone killing program has been expanded and raises all kinds of ethical and legal questions, and the National Defense Authorization Acts (NDAA) now allow for worldwide secret arrests and killings on the President’s orders, outside of judicial oversight.

The most severe damage to American democracy, however, has been done by the Obama-Holder Justice Department, shielding the architects and perpetrators of the Bush administration’s torture regime from legal consequences. Here was the opportunity to signal to the world that American exceptionalism also means that the US government is above using the methods of despotic regimes elsewhere. But the message sent was a very different one. As the Obama administration put it, the aim is to look forward, not backwards.

But if these practices are not being punished, the official position that “the US does not torture” is meaningless. If any future administration decides to go down that route again, it can and will point to the precedent set by Bush and Obama. And it is exactly this lending legitimacy to authoritarian tendencies of a transgressive national security state that will tarnish Obama’s place in history. It is particularly bitter that these policies are advanced by a former constitutional law professor.

Regulation of the financial sector:

The Obama administration did not push for legislation ‘with teeth’ for stricter regulations of investment banks after the financial crisis. The Justice Department has not prosecuted top banking executives who have clearly engaged in serious criminal activity. Apparently, the Obama administration believed that this class of people needed to be shielded from legal repercussions in order for the  economic recovery to succeed. In addition, many of Obama’s economic advisors are neoliberals with a background in big Wall Street firms. It is difficult to ignore the conflict of interest set up by this dynamic.

The positive changes during Obama’s first term

Healthcare Reform:

Admittedly, Obama’s key domestic policy project was a big step within in the American context, and extremely controversial, to be clear. However, a European-model public option, not to speak of a single-payer system, was wiped off the negotiating table very quickly, and from the reports I have read, Obama did not really mind. Insurance companies did not mind, either. That is because they get millions of new customers who are obliged to buy their insurance packages.

The repeal of ‘Don’t ask, don’t tell’

The Obama administration repealed the Clinton-era policy that allowed gays and lesbians to serve in the military while keeping in the closet. The policy, apart from being discriminatory, established a power dynamic that made LGBT military members vulnerable to blackmail for fear of being outed by colleagues. Contrary to rumors, the American military did not collapse once LGBT soldiers were allowed to express their identity. Interestingly, the military has become a venue of social progress for a second time after the desegregation during World War Two.

Few drastic changes in crucial areas

In sum, the notion of a president who would radically depart from the paths taken since 2001 has evaporated regarding most foreign policy and economic issues. While some symbolic changes were enacted, the big issues seem ‘path dependent,’ to borrow a sociological term. On civil liberties, Obama’s record is rather dim, except for the DADT repeal. Regarding economic policy, the financial sector—investment firms in particular—is back to business as usual, which is great if you happen to be an investment banker. The question remains whether Obama, now that he does not have to worry about reelection, will be a different politician. I am skeptical about that, even though I still have a tiny bit of hope.

What do you think?

[I will update the article from time to time and add more information.]

News coverage of Obama’s second inauguration

[Video] The New York Times has the full inauguration speech:

[Video] Politico’s live video coverage of the 2013 inauguration can be found here.

[Video] The New York Times reports from Washington prior to the presidential inauguration (2013/01/18):

Obama’s Rorschach.” (John T. Woolley, Professor of political science, UCSB; Co-director, American Presidency Project, Huffington Post, 2013/01/23) – A political scientist explains how people interpret Obama’s inaugural speech according to their own political leanings.

Barack Obama accused of giving partisan inauguration speech.” (Ewen McaAskill, Guardian, 2013/01/22)

Fox News Flips Out On Obama Inauguration Day.” (Brett LoGiurato, Business Insider, 2013/01/22)

[Cartoon] “Obama’s inaugural speech provokes rattled Republicans.” (David Horsey, Los Angeles Times, 2013/01/22)

12 Ways Obama Smacked Down the Tea Party and the Right in Inauguration Speech.” (Adele M. Stan, Alternet, 2013/01/21) – The left-leaning online magazine on how Obama symbolically pushed back against the American Far-Right’s rhetoric.

For 1st time, gay rights get shoutout in inaugural speech.” (Miranda Leitsinger, NBC News, 2013/01/21)

Inaugural Corporate Donors Include Bank Of America, Coca-Cola, Microsoft.” (Jillian Berman, Huffington Post, 2013/01/20) – Obama now accepts official corporate sponsorship.

Inauguration 2013: Obama’s King moment.” (Jonathan Allen and Emily Schultheis, Politico, 2013/01/20)

The Third Inaugural: Obama’s Quiet Ceremony.” (Amy Davidson, The New Yorker, 2013/01/20)

The Presidential Oath: Not Always Perfect, But It Gets The Job Done.” (Nina Totenberg, NPR, 2013/01/20)

Change Comes: After 4 Years, Friends See Shifts in the Obamas.” (Jodi Kantor, New York Times, 2013/01/19)

Washington Prepares for Festive but Scaled-Down Version of 2009 Events.” (Sheryl Gay Stolberg, New York Times, 2013/01/19)

Deutschsprachige Berichterstattung:

Obamas Vereidigung: Das verflixte zweite Mal.” (Gregor Peter Schmitz, Spiegel Online, 21.01.2013)

Background coverage

[Pictures] “President Obama’s First 4 Years.” (The Atlantic, 2013/01/18) – Great pictures of Obama’s first term in office.

fACT-CHECKING Obama’s Political Record

First-Term Promises Made, Kept and Broken.” (New York Times, 2013/01/19)

On Campaign Promises Report Card, Obama Did ‘Pretty Well’.” (NPR Staff, NPR, 2013/01/19)

Presidency

[Statistics] “For Second-Term Presidents, a Shorter Honeymoon.” (Nate Silver, New York Times, 2013/01/19) – “Support for Compromise Rises, Except Among Republicans.”

Civil liberties

10 Goals for President Obama & The White House.” (American Civil Liberties Union) – The largest civil rights organization in the US has a list with things they want Obama to do after his inauguration.

Has America Become an Authoritarian State?” (Henry A. Giroux, Alternet, 2013/01/25) – On the authoritarian tendencies of the Obama administration and the Democratic Party in the current neoliberal state, including Guantánamo Bay and warrantless wiretapping.

UPDATED: NDAA Prevents Closing Guantanamo, Could Lead to Claims of a Right to Discriminate.” (American Civil Liberties Union, 2013/01/03) – The ACLU on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)

Financial industry regulation

The Untouchables: How the Obama administration protected Wall Street from prosecutions.” (Glenn Greenwald, Guardian, 2013/01/23)

Healthcare reform

Obamacare 2.0: Judgment awaits.” (David Nather, Politico, 2013/01/19)

2012 Presidential Campaign

How President Obama Won a Second Term.” (Tim Dickinson, Rolling Stone, 2013/01/23) – Democratic political strategist James Carville breaks down the second Obama presidential campaign.

Obama campaign final fundraising total: $1.1 billion.” (Byron Tau, Politico, 2013/01/19)

Please note: You can find many more resources on the 2012 presidential campaign in my earlier blog post here.

After Obama’s Reelection, The “Grand Bargain” Is Next On The Docket

Barack Obama remains the President of the United States for the next four years. What is on the domestic agenda in American politics next?

The “Fiscal Cliff” and the “Grand Bargain”

Republicans in Congress plan to hold the approval of the federal budget hostage, as they did last time. What do they want? The continuation of the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and severe cuts to social programs that benefit the less fortunate in the name of deficit reduction. Most interesting about this is that the freshly reelected president and Democrats have signaled their willingness to largely go along with Republicans.

In what is known as the “Grand Bargain,” Democrats including Obama have proposed to slash programs such as Social Security to decrease the federal deficit, in order to avoid the “fiscal cliff,” i.e. the blockade of the federal budget by the GOP. Other than one might think from the Democrats’ campaign rhetoric, the focus is not on tax increases for corporations and the wealthiest individuals.

To understand why Obama would support policies that seem to run counter to his campaign promises of even a few weeks ago, namely to put his support behind the struggling American middle class, one has to reach back into his not-too-distant past. And there it lies, in the open: Obama is a neoliberal. 1 2 3

It is visible in the people he appointed to his economic team during the first term in office, the ways in which the financial industry was not heavily regulated after the financial crisis, and the way a public option was given up on early in favor of an industry-based model during the health care reform negotiations.

The irony of it all is that Obama the neoliberal, who pretends to be an economic progressive (liberal) during election season, is decried as everything from a socialist to a communist by the far-right commentators on talk radio and the Republican propaganda machine of Roger Ailes and Rupert Murdoch that is Fox News.

Economically, Obama’s current proposals represent but a gradual difference to what a Romney/Ryan presidency would have wrought, but it is not qualitatively different. The interests of the super-wealthy are not touched by Obama and the Democratic Party.

The swift willingness to compromise with a Republican Party that has been playing hardball since day one (of Obama’s first term), combined with the Obama administration’s notable toughness towards its progressive supporters, reoccurring at the beginning of this second term, makes one wonder whether this is after all a game of good cop, bad cop. If Republican proposals seem extreme from a middle class perspective, the Democrats’ slightly less harsh plans all of a sudden look friendly in comparison. But it is a view from within a moving train.

[Update] My judgment of the situation was perhaps a bit too harsh. According to the New York Times (December 2), the Obama administration now forces the GOP to come to the table first with a serious offer, not the other way around like last time. Obama now wants to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans in order to reduce the federal deficit.

Read more:

Divided House Passes Tax Deal in End to Latest Fiscal Standoff.” (Jennifer Steinhauer, New York Times, 2013/01/01)

“GOP’s Latest Fiscal Cliff Offer: Permanent Extension Of Bush Tax Cuts For The Wealthy.” (Igor Volksky, Think Progress, 12/12/2012) – Business as usual.

Following the Debt Talks-Interactive Feature.” (Alicia Parlapiano and Josh Keller, New York Times, 2012/12/06) – A nice graphic overview of what Democrats and Republicans each offer in the current talks on the federal debt and budget.

Criticized as Weak in Past Talks, Obama Takes Harder Line.” (Peter Baker, New York Times, 12/02/2012)

The cold, hard realities behind Medicare cuts.” (Politico, 12/02/12)

Inside the talks: Fiscal framework emerges.” (Politico, 11/29/12)

[Fact check] “Facts Falling Off the Fiscal Cliff.” (FactCheck, 11/14/2012)

Fiscal Cliff? Obama Urged Not To Panic.” (Dan Froomkin, Huffington Post, 11/13/2012)

[Op-ed] “Why the Grand Bargain Is One-Sided and Totally Unfair.” (Cenk Uygur, Huffington Post, 11/12/2012)

White House Grand Bargain offer to Speaker Boehner Obtained by Bob Woodward.” (NBC News, 11/11/2012)

[Op-ed] “Let’s Not Make a Deal.” (Paul Krugman, New York Times, 11/08/2012)

Liberals fear grand bargain betrayal if President Obama wins.” (Carrie Budoff Brown, Politico, 11/02/2012)

Obama vows debt-cutting ‘grand bargain,’ immigration reform in Des Moines Register interview.” (Olivier Knox, Yahoo!News, 10/24/2012)

  1. Op-Ed: “Kill Lists and Giant Triplets: Obama and the Neoliberal Government.” (Tolu Olorunda, CounterPunch, 11/08/2012)
  2. Obama 2006—”Too many of us have been interested in defending programs as written in 1938.″ (Gaius Publius, AmericaBlog, 05/01/2012)
  3. “No Economic Team of Rivals On Obama Staff: Rubin’s Manic Neoliberals Dominate.” (Steve Clemons, New America Foundation, Huffington Post, 02/28/2012)

Obama Wins Re-election! Here Is My Big List Of Links, Continually Updated. (2012)

President Barack Obama won his re-election in 2012 with an impressive lead of 332 to 206 electoral college votes after taking the most important swing states inluding Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. The polls pointed towards this outcome, but the race had remained close until the end.

Here is my big list of links to articles about the 2012 presidential election. I will continually update it as I find new material.

Obama’s victory speech:

Romney’s concession speech:

News Coverage of the 2012 Presidential Election Outcome:

Among liberal commentators, but also some conservative voices, a narrative is beginning to emerge that the GOP lost because it kept appealing to racism, religious fundamentalism, and conservative populism among its base, all of which had been culminating in the Tea Party Movement, which had emerged with the 2008 election of Barack Obama. To get a glimpse at the GOP of 2012, and to see the ideological elements mentioned above, one may go to YouTube and re-watch the past primaries, or the video documents of CPAC 2012.

[Statistics] “For Second-Term Presidents, a Shorter Honeymoon.” (Nate Silver, New York Times, 2013/01/19)

[Campaign Finance] “Obama campaign final fundraising total: $1.1 billion.” (Byron Tau, Politico, 2013/01/19)

[Demographics] “Add This Group To Obama’s Winning Coalition: ‘Religiously Unaffiliated’” (Liz Halloran, NPR, 12/09/2012)

[Demographics] “Romney Advisor Stuart Stevens Brags About Winning Wealthier Votes.” (International Business Times, 11/29/2012)

[Demographics] “The GOP’s Real Concern in the 2012 Results: Losing the Middle.” (Dante Chinni, Patchwork Nation, 11/29/2012)

[Demographics] “Top Romney Adviser Brags About Losing Poor, Minority Voters To Obama.” (Benjy Sarlin, Talking Points Memo, 11/28/2012) – “The implied argument that poorer votes are inferior seems to undercut the campaign’s central message over the last two years: that Romney’s top concern was providing jobs for the jobless.”

[Demographics] “Former Florida GOP leaders say voter suppression was reason they pushed new election law.” (Dara Kam and John Lantigua, Palm Beach Post, 11/25/2012) – This speaks for itself and is really shameful in a democracy.

How President Obama Won a Second Term.” (Tim Dickinson, Rolling Stone, 2012/11/23) – “Political strategist James Carville breaks down where the Republicans went wrong – and what it means for the future.”

[Demographics] “College Republicans At Historically Black Colleges And Universities Struggle To Connect With Romney.” (Rodney Holcombe, Huffington Post, 11/19/2012)

Republicans Mourning for Mitt Romney? Not So Much.” (Michael Falcone, ABC News, 11/17/2012) – Since Mitt Romney lost, the GOP is giving him a cold shoulder.

[Demographics] “Gay Vote Seen as Crucial in Obama’s Victory.” (Nate Silver, New York Times, 11/15/2012)

Romney Blames Loss on Obama’s ‘Gifts’ to Minorities and Young Voters.” (Ashley Parker, New York Times, 11/14/2012) – A professional politician complaining about another professional politician for making promises to voters to get elected—now that is quite amusing. As if Mitt Romney’s own party did not try to win the election by promising ‘gifts’ in the form of tax cuts to its one core constituency that really matters, i.e. the class of ultra-wealthy donors.

[Op-Ed] “Democrats had a better grasp of political reality in 2012.” (Los Angeles Times, 11/08/2012)

Adviser: Romney “shellshocked” by loss.” (CBS, 11/08/2012) – It took the Romney campaign a while to realize that they did indeed lose.

Fox station tells Romney supporters how to ‘beat the traffic’ to Canada.” (David Edwards, The Raw Story, 11/08/2012) – Sometimes reality is stranger than fiction, as they say. And for a local Fox News station, the re-election of Barack Obama means that the apocalypse has come. So what is their advice to Romney supporters? Fleeing to Canada, ironically a country with more ‘socialist’ government programs than the US.

[Audio] “Republicans Review Election Results For Insight.” (npr, 11/08/2012)

[Op-Ed] “The Republican Party Needs to Ditch Fox News If It Wants to Win.” (Mother Jones, 11/07/2012) – The demographics of the US work against a GOP that constantly employs race-baiting and embraces fundamentalist religion.

Barack Obama’s odyssey continues.” (Guardian, 11/07/2012)

Obama Victory Could Spell End Of Conservative Supreme Court.” (Forbes, 11/07/2012)

The 2012 presidential election: Obama’s win raises questions for Republicans.” (Economist, 11/07/2012)

Why Romney Lost: Conservative Commentary Roundup.” (Forbes, 11/07/2012)

Obama Powers to Re-Election Despite Weak Economy.” (RealClearPolitics, 11/06/2012)

Obama pulls out reelection in hard-fought battle.” (Los Angeles Times, 11/06/2012)

“Obama reelection: Grind-it-out win.” (Politico, 11/06/2012)

Obama wins a second term as U.S. president.” (Washington Post, 11/06/2012)

OBAMA WINS SECOND TERM.” (Atlantic, 11/06/2012)

The Rise of the Poll Quants (or, Why Sam Wang Might Eat a Bug).” (Tom Bartlett, Percolator Blog, Chronicle of Higher Education, 11/05/2012) – How statisticians have risen in the public sphere due to their predictions on political elections.

Recap of the 2012 Presidential Campaign:

How President Obama Won a Second Term.” (Tim Dickinson, Rolling Stone, 2013/01/23) – Democratic political strategist James Carville breaks down the second Obama presidential campaign.

[Op-Ed] “Hope and Change: Part 2.” (Thomas L. Friedman, New York Times, 11/07//2012) – Friedman says that the GOP lost this time and last time because it moved so far to the  right that it lost the political center.

21 moments that defined the campaign and America.” (CNN, 11/06/2012)

[Op-Ed] “What Propelled Obama to Victory and Sent the Plutocrats and Racists to a Brutal Defeat.” (Alternet, 11/06/2012)

[Op-Ed] “The Real Loser: Truth.” (New York Times, 11/05/2012) – “[T]he Romney campaign has placed a big and historic bet on the proposition that facts can be ignored, more or less, with impunity.”

Social Media-Related Coverage:

Campaigning And Social Media Reactions To Obama’s Victory

How Obama Knew How You’d Vote, Even Before You Did.” (Dan Rowinski, readwrite.com, 2012/12/17)

Meet the Obama campaign’s $250 million fundraising platform.” (Kyle Rush, 11/27/2012) – A web developer who worked on Obama’s online fundraising platform writes about his experience building the project.

What President Obama Can Teach You About Social Media.” (Brett Relander, Social Media Today, 11/26/2012)

“[Jersey Shore reality TV celebrity] Snooki’s Facebook Fans Were More Likely to Say They Voted Than Mitt Romney’s.” (Rebecca J. Rosen, The Atlantic, 11/19/2012)

Racism: Racist Teens Forced to Answer for Tweets About the ‘Nigger’ President.” (Jezebel, 11/09/2012) – Some white teenagers show very ugly racism as a reaction to Obama’s re-election on Twitter.

Where America’s Racist Tweets Come From.” (The Atlantic, 11/09/2012) – Unsurprisingly, it is worst in the Deep South.

The 6 Best Overreactions To Obama’s Win.” (Think Progress, 11/08/2012) – America’s right-wing talk radio hosts go over the top after Obama’s re-election, as was absolutely to be expected.

2012 Presidential Election: Insight and Context with Wolfram|Alpha.” (Wolfram|Alpha, 11/07/2012) – From the blog of answer engine Wolfram Alpha.

The 7 Tweets That Defined Election Night 2012.” (Huffington Post, 11/07/2012)

Facebookstories/Vote.” (Facebook, 11/06/2012) – A graphical representation of how Facebook users votes.

Humor

The Internet wouldn’t be what it is if the 2012 presidential election didn’t spark numerous political memes. Here are the post-election ones:

[Meme] “Meet “Drunk Nate Silver.” (BuzzFeed, 11/08/2011) – The New York Times’ statistician becomes a Twitter sensation. Like Chuck Norris Facts for political junkies.

[Meme] “White People Mourning Romney.” – A Tumblr blog featuring pictures of white Romney voters shocked by their candidate’s defeat.

Deutschsprachige Berichterstattung zum Ergebnis der amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2012:

Informationsportal des Deutschlandradios zu den Präsidentschaftswahlen 2012

Das USA-Bild der Deutschen – Alles nur Zyniker.” (The European, 11.11.2012)

Wahlen in den USA: Im Westen nichts Neues?” (Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, 09.11.2012)

[Kommentar] “Unsere Obama-Liebe ist infantil.” (Jan Fleischhauer, Spiegel Online, 08.11.2012) – Der konservative Kolumnist bei Spiegel Online ist der Meinung, die Deutschen würden die USA gerne “auf den Knien [. . . ] sehen”, seien geradezu besessen von Amerika-Bashing, übertrieben den Niedergang der USA im Allgemeinen maßlos und seien nur deshalb von Obama in den Bann gezogen, weil er vermeintlich das Gegenteil von allem was sie an Amerika schlecht finden verkörpere.

US-Präsidentschaftswahl: Die Multikulti-Sieger.” (Spiegel Online, 08.11.2012) – Über den Einfluss von Latinos, Schwarzen und Frauen auf den Wahlsieg Obamas und die Zukunft der Politik in den USA.

[Audio] “Berliner Reaktionen auf USA-Wahl.” (Deutschlandradio Hintergrund, 07.11.2012)

[Audio] “Das waren die US-Wahlen 2012.” (mephisto976, 07.11.2012) – Interview mit Prof. Dr. Crister S. Garrett von American Studies Leipzig.

[Audio] “Interview Prof. Detlef Junker (Heidelberg Center for American Studies).” (Deutschlandradio Hintergrund, 07.11.2012)

Liveticker US-Wahl: Obama: ‘Das Beste kommt noch’.” (Frankfurter Rundschau, 06.11.2012)

[Audio] “Super Tuesday bei mephisto 97.6.” (mephisto976, 06.11.2012)

US-Wahl: Barack Obama bleibt Präsident.” (Zeit Online, 06.11.2012)

Wahl in Amerika: Obama als Präsident wiedergewählt – Romney gesteht Niederlage ein.” (FAZ, 06.11.2012)

Präsidentschaftswahl in den USA: Obama II.” (taz, 06.11.2012)

[Kommentar] “Untergang des amerikanischen Imperiums.” (Jakob Augstein, Spiegel Online, 05.11.2012) – Der Verleger des linken Freitag über die Macht des Kapitals in der amerikanischen Politik und das Unvermögen der Obama-Administration, den Kurs ihrer Vorgänger grundlegend zu ändern.

Die Präsidentschaftswahl 2012 und Social Media

Obama: Wahlsieg dank Big Data und Analytics.” (Harald Weiss, silicon.de, 08.11.2012)

US-Wahl: Fünf Learnings rund ums Social Web.” (Uwe Baltner, SMO14, 08.11.2012)

Infografik vergleicht Online-Wahlkämpfe Obama und Romney.” (Markus Beckedahl, Netzpolitik.org, 07.11.2012) – Eine grafische Darstellung des Online-Wahlkampfs von Obama und Romney mit Schwerpunkt auf Smartphones.

Obama, Herrscher der Daten.” (Matthias Kolb, Deutschlandfunk Diskurs, 05.11.2012) – Bericht über die entscheidende Bedeutung der genaue Auswertung von Daten über Wählergruppen im Präsidentschaftswahl 2012.

Countdown zur US-Wahl: Noch 17 Tage: Wie Twitter den US-Wahlkampf banalisiert.” (Malte Lehming, Tagesspiegel, 20.10.2012)

Rückblick auf die Präsidentschaftswahl 2012:

Obama gegen Romney: Wahrheit verliert, Lüge gewinnt.” (Spiegel Online, 06.11.2012) – Wie beide Kandidaten im Wahlkampf gelogen haben und Wähler ihrerseits belogen werden wollen.

 

 

Last Minute Update On The Presidential Election

The Huffington Post calculates that Obama gets 271 electoral votes, and Romney gets 191 electoral votes (a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win) (November 6). A summary can be found here.

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog estimates a 92% chance of winning for Obama (November 6).

Real Clear Politics’ estimate: Obama 201 electoral votes, Romney 191 electoral votes  (November 6).

Alright, that’s all for now. Not that my endorsement matters in any way, but I hope that tomorrow, the next President of the United States will be the current one. Let’s see if that happens.

You can find more background information on the 2012 presidential election in my previous posts, for instance here.

 

 

A Mere Two Days Until the 2012 American Presidential Election

On Tuesday, November 6, the 2012 presidential election will finally be decided. What is the latest state of affairs? The prospects of the incumbent, President Barack Obama, seem to increase towards the finishing line of this election cycle.

How Likely Is It That the Current POTUS (President of the United States) Will Also Be the Next?

The Princeton Election Consortium has calculated a 98.2 percent chance for Obama to be re-elected.

Statistician Nate Silver at the New York Times has calculated a 83.7 percent chance for Obama to win the Electoral College (November 2, 2012).

Nevertheless, polls do not amount to anything if voters do not show up at the voting booth or cast an absentee ballot. So what are the odds here? According to Gallup, voter turnout will be slightly lower than in 2008 and in 2004 (October 30, 2012).

Meanwhile…Robo-Calls, Commies Love Obama, and Voting Machine Software

While the chances of the Romney campaign are decreasing, there is no shortage of election shenanigans that may or may not be directly connected to said campaign (in some cases they are clearly not). Here are some examples of dirty campaign tricks of late:

Robo-Calls:

In Massachusetts, voters reported robo-calls encouraging them to vote on the wrong date, i.e. one day after the election.

Red Cross Annoyed By Romney Disaster Relief Campaign Stunt:

The Red Cross was not amused about the Romney campaign’s window-dressing of a rally as disaster relief effort through busing in canned goods in the aftermath of hurricane Sandy.

Abe Lincoln’s GOP Loves Black Voters:

A recent Super Pac ad tries to persuade African Americans to vote for Romney because the Republican Party freed the slaves—in the nineteenth century. While that is technically correct (Abraham Lincoln was a Republican), a quick glance at a quality American history textbook will reveal the historic realignments that have taken place in the American party system. Especially since the 1960s, the GOP, along with Southern Democrats (Dixiecrats), who soon joined the GOP, has deployed the Southern Strategy: appealing to white racism to peel off voters from Democrats. In short, the Republican Party of 1865 is not the Republican Party of 2012.

(Dead) Latin American Socialists and Communists For Obama:

In Florida, one of the important battleground states, the Romney campaign attempts to appeal to older anti-communist Cuban American voters in a Spanish-language ad by associating Obama with Fidel Castro (via his niece, who says she would vote for Obama), Ché Guevara (via a background picture from an EPA email featuring the famous portrait), and Hugo Chavez (who said that he would vote for Obama if he were American). In reality, the relationship between the actual socialist President of Venezuela, and Obama, who has been called a socialist by political opponents, has never been that cozy. Since July of 2010, there is no US ambassador in Caracas and no Venezuelan ambassador in Washington, respectively, because Chavez did not accept Washington’s appointee, due to his previous anti-Chavez remarks.

Voting Machines Get ‘Experimental Software Patches’:

In Ohio, another important swing state, Secretary of State Jon Husted plans to install “experimental software patches” on voting machines, which, due to a legal loophole, do not have to be certified in any way. Civil rights groups are worried about the potential for manipulation.

Vote For Romney Or Face Eternal Damnation:

All these prior arguments in favor of Romney may or may not help him win against Obama on Tuesday. But if that is not enough, there is still the biggest gun of American politics: the Christian God.

Not associated with the Romney campaign, but in support of him, are some clergymen. Their argument: Vote for Romney or face God’s wrath. Of course, they are not telling their flock whom to vote for—that would, in theory, endanger their tax-exempt status as a church. But their hints are not all that subtle either.

In September, Roman Catholic Bishop Thomas John Paprocki of Springfield, IL, wrote in an email to his parishioners that voting for a Democrat might “plac[e] the eternal salvation of your own soul in serious jeopardy.”

In late October, another Roman Catholic Bishop, David L. Ricken of Green Bay, WI, wrote in an email to his parishioners that voting for a party supporting “intrinsically evil actions” including “homosexual ‘marriage'” (which Democrats support) “could put your own soul in jeopardy.”

Also in late October, former Republican presidential candidate and Southern Baptist minister Mike Huckabee narrated an ad framing the upcoming election as a “test of fire” wherein “[y]our vote will affect the future and be recorded in eternity.” You can watch it here:

Desperate times call for desperate measures, I suppose.

You can find more background information on the 2012 presidential election in my previous posts, for instance here.

 

 

Round 4: Romney and Obama’s Third and Last Debate Covers Foreign Policy

Tonight (October 22, 2012), President Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney hold their third and final debate, this time at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, and with a focus on foreign policy. During the last debate, Romney already attacked Obama’s foreign policy to some extent, for instance by (falsely) claiming that the president had not called the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi on September 11, 2012 an act of terrorism—the respective transcript produced by the debate moderator proved Romney wrong on this allegation.

Topics that will certainly be on the agenda tonight: Iran’s nuclear program and relations with China. Other issues which I assume will not be discussed, even though they merit serious debate: the expanding drone wars under the current administration in the ‘war on terror,’ in particular so-called signature strikes, and the conscious decision of the justice department not to hold accountable the architects and enforcers of the torture regime in said ‘war on terror,’ which sets a precedent for future administrations. So let us see what the two candidates have to say.

[Update: They did talk about drones and Romney agreed with President Obama’s current policy.]

You can watch the debate here:

The complete final debate on YouTube:

The YouTube election hub also has a plethora of political videos here.

You can also watch the complete third Obama-Romney debate at the New York Times, which has a handy running transcript next to the video.

You can also watch the complete third Obama-Romney debate at the Washington Post, which has a handy running transcript next to the video.

2012 Election Central has a schedule of all 2012 debates here.

Fact-checking:

Fact check: Claims about Syria, Libya, Iraq scrutinized.” (USA Today, 10/23/2012)

Fact checking the third presidential debate.” (Washington Post, 10/23/2012)

Fact-checking Websites:

factcheck.org

politifact.com

Romney All Wet on Ships.” (FactCheck, 10/26/2012)

False Claims in Final Debate.” (FactCheck, 10/23/2012)

Fact-checking the third presidential debate.” (PolitiFact, 10/22/2012)

Fact-checking foreign policy.” (PolitiFact, 10/21/2012)

Fact-checking taxes in the presidential race.” (PolitiFact, 10/15/2012)

Presidential Debate Fact-Check and Updates.” (New York Times, 10/16/2012)

[Infographic and analysis] “Obama’s Numbers: Statistical measures of the president’s term to date.” (FactCheck, 10/08/2012)

How to Prime Your BS Detection Skills Before the Presidential Debates.” (Lifehacker, 10/03/2012)

Debate Coverage:

Post-Debate:

[Memes] “About Those Horses and Bayonets ….” (New York Times, 10/23/2012)

A Good Debate for Obama, But Can He Stop Romney?” (Atlantic, 10/23/2012)

Obama’s Two Most Revealing Moments In Last Night’s Debate.” (The New Republic, 10/23/2012)

Romney’s Big Navy Guru Made Millions From Building Ships.” (Wired, 10/23/2012)

Romney’s Final Debate Message: I’ll Be A Better Obama.” (Talking Points Memo, 10/23/2012)

The foreign-policy debate: A win for Obama.” (Economist, 10/23/2012)

[Memes] “Top 5 final-debate memes: ‘Horses and Bayonets,’ and more.” (The Week, 10/23/2012)  via @TheWeek

Obama Unlikely to Get Big Debate Bounce, but a Small One Could Matter.” (New York Times, 10/23/2012)

Obama wins final debate, but does it matter?” ( CNN, 10/23/2012)

Obama, Romney go on attack in final debate.” (USA Today, 10/23/2012)

Presidential debate 2012: 7 takeaways.” (Politico, 10/23/2012)

Obama and Romney Bristle From Start Over Foreign Policy.” (New York Times, 10/22/2012)

Romney Disappoints GOP Base.” (Mother Jones, 10/22/2012)

[Video] “Obama To Romney: The 1980s Called — They Want Their Foreign Policy Back.” (Talking Points Memo, 10/22/2012)

Pre-Debate:

5 Facts To Commit To Memory Before Tonight’s Foreign Policy Debate.” (Think Progress, 10/22/2012)

6 questions that will settle the election.” (Politico, 10/22/2012)

Foreign Policy Debate Puts Focus on Leadership.” (New York Times, 10/22/2012)

Obama vs. Romney: How they plan to win.” (Politico, 10/22/2012)

Presidential debate: 5 things to watch Monday.” (Politico, 10/22/2012)

German Language Debate Coverage:

Drittes Fernsehduell: Romney grenzt sich ab – gegen Obamas Vorgänger.” (FAZ, 23.10.2012)

Letzte TV-Debatte: Staatsmann Obama landet Punktsieg.” (Zeit Online, 23.10.2012)

TV-Duell : Obama punktet mit Souveränität.” (taz, 23.10.2012)

[Podcast] “Swingin’ America – Endspurt im Wahlkampf.” (hr2 Der Tag, 22.10.2012)

Countdown zur US-Wahl: Noch 17 Tage: Wie Twitter den US-Wahlkampf banalisiert.” (Malte Lehming, Tagesspiegel, 20.10.2012)

Background information:

[Podcast] “Obama Plans Another Campaign Marathon For Monday.” (npr, 11/05/2012)

[Podcast] “Red State Blue State.” (This American Life Episode 478, 11/01/2012) – This episode covers how the current hyperpolarized political climate in the US affects families and friends who find themselves in opposite political camps.

Democracy denied: Millions of Americans blocked from voting.” (Al Jazeera English, 10/28/2012)

A Comprehensive Timeline Of Mitt Romney’s Foreign Policy Positions During The Campaign.” (Think Progress, 10/22/2012)

The Federal Bailout That Saved Mitt Romney.” (Rolling Stone, 08/29/2012)

[Podcast] “For Many Florida Ex-Cons, Voting Booth Is Off-Limits.” (npr, 10/22/2012)

U.S. Foreign Policy Data Roundup: Candidates and Issues.” (Gallup, 10/22/2012)

An update on the electoral map after the first presidential debate from Talking Points Memo (October 16, 2012):

[Infographic] Here you can find the electoral map from the New York Times.

3 states that may decide the election.” (Politico, 10/15/2012) – Ohio, Florida and Virginia

The Catholic ‘Swing’ Vote.” (Pew, 10/11/2012)

[Podcast] “Science and the 2012 Election.” (Point of Inquiry, 10/15/2012)  – A discussion about the candidates’ positions on matters of science

Debates: Leaked Debate Agreement Shows Both Obama and Romney are Sniveling Cowards.” (Gawker, 10/15/2012)

[Podcast] “All That Stuff Before The Debate.” (My History Can Beat Up Your Politics, 09/12/2012) – A discussion about the intensely scripted nature of presidential debates

[Video] “As Obama, Romney Hold First Debate, Behind the Secret GOP-Dem Effort to Shut Out Third Parties.” (Democracy Now, 10/03/2012)

Do the US presidential debates matter?” (BBC News, 10/03/2012)

Election 2012: Your Free Ticket to a Popular Stanford Course.” —Stanford University lets you watch a lecture series about this year’s presidential election and broader themes behind political campaigns in the US (via Open Culture)

First Debate Often Helps Challenger in Polls.” (New York Times, 10/03/2012)

[Audio] “How Politicians Get Away With Dodging The Question.” (npr, 10/03/2012)

[Podcast] “How Presidential Debates Work.” (Stuff You Should Know, 11/10/2011)

How Presidential Debates Work.” (HowStuffWorks, 10/13/2010)

[Memes] “2012 United States Presidential Election.” (Know Your Meme) – The Internet is even capable of exploiting the funny bits of presidential elections

German Language Background information:

Amerika wählt: Was sind die Swing States?” (FAZ, 06.11.2012)

[Podcast] “Harvard-Ökonom: US-Mittelschicht steht immer mehr unter Druck.” (Deutschlandradio Kultur, Ortszeit, 05.11.2012)

[Podcast] “Praise The Lord! Aber nur, wenn’s opportun ist.” (Deutschlandradio Kultur, Politisches Feuilleton, 05.11.2012) – Wie amerikanische Politiker Religion für den Wahlkampf nutzen

[Podcast] “USA vor der Wahl – wohin steuert die Supermacht?” (Deutschlandfunk Kontrovers, 05.11.2012)

Prognose zur künftigen US-Politik: So sieht Amerikas Zukunft aus.” (Spiegel Online, 04.11.2012)

[Podcast] “Romney versus Obama: Die USA vor der Präsidentschaftswahl.” (Deutschlandfunk, Hintergrund, 04.11.2012)

[Audio] “US-Wahlsystem verständlich erklärt.” (MDR Info, 02.11.2012)

[Podcast] “Sondersendung mit Rop Gonggrijp über die US-Wahlen und Wahlfälschung.” (Alternativlos Folge 28, 01.11.2012)

[Podcast] “Das Streben nach Glück – Anspruch und Wirklichkeit: Amerika vor der Wahl.” (Deutschlandradio Kultur Lesart, 28.10.2012) – Die Diskussionsrunde nimmt Bezug auf Mark Twains kürzlich nach hundert Jahren der Geheimhaltung veröffentlichten “Geheimen Biographie” sowie David Remnicks Obama-Biographie “Die Brücke – Barack Obama und die Vollendung der schwarzen Bürgerrechtsbewegung”, im Original “The Bridge – The Life and Rise of Barack Obama” (2010).

[Video/Podcast] “Brennpunkt USA – Eine intellektuelle Spurensuche.” (Schweizer Fernsehen, Sternstunde Philosophie, 24.10.2012) – In der philosophischen Sendung des Schweizer Fernsehens interviewt Barbara Blasch amerikanische Intellektuelle wie Noam Chomsky, Katja Vogt und Michael Walzer zur Lage der Nation kurz vor der Präsidentschaftswahl 2012. Auch als Audioversion im Podcast-Feed der Sendung.

Debattenkultur: Warum wir Amis keine kritischen Denker sind.” (Zeit Online, 02.10.2012)

 

Round 3: Romney vs. Obama, The Rematch

Tonight (October 16, 2012), President Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney will have their second debate, this time at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. In their last debate, Romney came across better prepared and ‘won’ on style, not necessarily on substance. The big question concerning this debate is therefore: Can Obama be a match to Romney this time as a performer?

You can watch the debate here:

Here is the debate, courtesy of the YouTube Politics channel:

If you are short on time, here is the debate in 100 seconds, courtesy of Talking Points Memo:

The YouTube election hub has a live stream of the debates here.

You can also watch the complete second Obama-Romney debate at the New York Times, which has a nifty running transcript next to the video.

You can also watch the complete second Obama-Romney debate at the Washington Post, which has a nifty running transcript next to the video.

2012 Election Central has a schedule of all upcoming debates here.

Fact-checking:

Why The Charge That Obama Is ‘Anti-Business’ Is Ridiculous, In Three Charts.” (Think Progress, 10/22/2012)

At Last Night’s Debate: Romney Told 31 Myths In 41 Minutes.” (Think Progress, 10/17/2012)

Debate fact check: Hofstra presidential debate.” (Politico, 10/17/2012)

Debate fact check: Revisiting claims on jobs, education.” (USA Today, 10/17/2012)

Fact-checking Websites:

factcheck.org

politifact.com

Fact-checking taxes in the presidential race.” (PolitiFact, 10/15/2012)

Presidential Debate Fact-Check and Updates.” (New York Times, 10/16/2012)

[Infographic and analysis] “Obama’s Numbers: Statistical measures of the president’s term to date.” (FactCheck, 10/08/2012)

How to Prime Your BS Detection Skills Before the Presidential Debates.” (Lifehacker, 10/03/2012)

Debate Coverage:

All Post-Debate Polls Give Obama Clear Win.” (The Nation, 10/17/2012)

Analysis: With gloves off on TV, did rivals connect?” (USA Today, 10/17/2012)

‘Binders full of women’ meme spreads.” (Politico, 10/16/2012)

‘Binders full of women’: Romney’s four words that alienated women voters.” (Guardian, 10/17/2012)

Obama, Romney Campaigns Square Off in Debate Rematch.” (Wall Street Journal, 10/17/2012)

The second presidential debate: An aggressive rematch.” (The Economist, 10/17/2012)

Obama goes on offensive, turns debate with Romney into argument.” (Washington Post, 10/17/2012)

Second presidential debate: Six takeaways.” (Politico, 10/17/2012)

CNN Poll: Nearly half say Obama won showdown.“(CNN Political Ticker, 10/16/2012)

Romney stunned by debate moderator’s fact check on Libya attacks.” (The Raw Story, 10/16/2012)

5 Facts You Should Commit To Memory Before Watching Tonight’s Debate.” (Think Progress, 10/16/2012)

Debate Rules Bar Follow-Up Questions—From Everyone.” (Slate, 10/16/2012)

In second presidential debate, style is likely to trump facts.” (Los Angeles Times, 10/16/2012)

[Video] “[Green Party Candidate] Jill Stein Arrested Before Hofstra Debate, Campaign Reports.” (Huffington Post, 10/16/2012)

Presidential Debate: Five things to watch.” (Politico, 10/16/2012)

Town Hall Format Poses Risks for Obama and Romney.” (New York Times, 10/16/2012)

Candy Crowley’s role in debate questioned by Romney and Obama.” (Guardian, 10/15/2012) – Both candidates do not want follow-up questions from the debate moderator

Voters Divided Over Who Will Win Second Debate.” (Pew, 10/15/2012)

Voters Equally Favorable to Romney, Obama.” (Gallup, 10/16/2012)

German Language Debate Coverage:

[coming up]

Background information:

An update on the electoral map after the first presidential debate from Talking Points Memo (October 16, 2012):

[Infographic] Here you can find the electoral map from the New York Times.

3 states that may decide the election.” (Politico, 10/15/2012) – Ohio, Florida and Virginia

The Catholic ‘Swing’ Vote.” (Pew, 10/11/2012)

The Federal Bailout That Saved Mitt Romney.” (Rolling Stone, 08/29/2012)

[Podcast] “Science and the 2012 Election.” (Point of Inquiry, 10/15/2012)  – A discussion about the candidates’ positions on matters of science

Debates: Leaked Debate Agreement Shows Both Obama and Romney are Sniveling Cowards.” (Gawker, 10/15/2012)

[Podcast] “All That Stuff Before The Debate.” (My History Can Beat Up Your Politics, 09/12/2012) – A discussion about the intensely scripted nature of presidential debates

[Video] “As Obama, Romney Hold First Debate, Behind the Secret GOP-Dem Effort to Shut Out Third Parties.” (Democracy Now, 10/03/2012)

Do the US presidential debates matter?” (BBC News, 10/03/2012)

Election 2012: Your Free Ticket to a Popular Stanford Course.” —Stanford University lets you watch a lecture series about this year’s presidential election and broader themes behind political campaigns in the US (via Open Culture)

First Debate Often Helps Challenger in Polls.” (New York Times, 10/03/2012)

[Audio] “How Politicians Get Away With Dodging The Question.” (npr, 10/03/2012)

[Podcast] “How Presidential Debates Work.” (Stuff You Should Know, 11/10/2011)

How Presidential Debates Work.” (HowStuffWorks, 10/13/2010)

[Op-Ed] “Kill Lists and Giant Triplets: Obama and the Neoliberal Government.” (truthout, 09/08/2012) – A leftist critique of Obama’s neoliberal policies and continuities of the Bush-era “War on Terror.”

[Memes] “2012 United States Presidential Election.” (Know Your Meme) – The Internet is even capable of exploiting the funny bits of presidential elections

German Language Background information:

Das Streben nach Glück – Anspruch und Wirklichkeit: Amerika vor der Wahl.” (Deutschlandradio Kultur, 28.10.2012) – Die Diskussionsrunde nimmt Bezug auf Mark Twains kürzlich nach hundert Jahren der Geheimhaltung veröffentlichten “Geheimen Biographie” sowie David Remnicks Obama-Biographie “Die Brücke – Barack Obama und die Vollendung der schwarzen Bürgerrechtsbewegung”, im Original “The Bridge – The Life and Rise of Barack Obama” (2010).

Debattenkultur: Warum wir Amis keine kritischen Denker sind.” (Zeit Online, 02.10.2012)

October Halftime: And Now For Something Completely Similar

In the press landscape, the Biden-Ryan debate last week (October 11, 2012) was for the most part counted as a strong comeback for the Obama campaign, following the president’s lackluster performance against Mitt Romney the week before (October 3, 2012). Biden pointed out the glaring factual flaws of his opponents arguments. You can find some links detailing these in my last post here. So what is left for the Romney campaign between now and the second presidential debate tonight in Hempstead, New York (October 16, 2012)? For one thing, it is damage control. In an attempt at portraying himself as a compassionate conservative, as opposed to the long-time follower of Ayn Rand that he is, Paul Ryan went to a soup kitchen in northeast Ohio for a photo op showing him and his family cleaning some dishes. That did not go so well, as the artificiality of the whole maneuver was quite apparent:

Charity president: Paul Ryan “did nothing” at soup kitchen photo-op.” (CBSNews, 10/15/2012)

Charity president unhappy about Paul Ryan soup kitchen ‘photo op’.” (Washington Post, 10/15/2012)

According to the head of that apolitical charity, Ryan entered the soup kitchen without permission. And here is how he characterized what followed:

He [Ryan] did nothing. He just came in here to get his picture taken at the dining hall.

On top of that, the pots and pans Ryan and his family ‘cleaned’ for the photo op “did not appear to be dirty.”

As of October 13, 2012, Ohio leans slightly towards Obama (51% versus 46%), according to a PPP poll.

[Infographic] Here you can find the electoral map from the New York Times.

Round 2: Ryan vs. Biden (10 October 2012)

The second televised debate of the 2012 presidential elections is scheduled for tonight (Thursday, 11 October, 2012), featuring Vice President Joe Biden and challenger Paul Ryan. After the last debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney, which a majority of commentators from all sides saw as a victory (at least on style) for Romney, it is going to be quite interesting to see, in my opinion, what debate strategy the Obama camp will choose this time around.

9 Ways to Watch the Vice Presidential Debate Online.” (Mashable, 2012/10/11)

C-SPAN has the debate here.

The YouTube election hub has a live stream of the debates here.

You can also watch the complete first Biden-Ryan debate at the New York Times, which has a nifty running transcript next to the video.

Here is the full debate, courtesy of the YouTube Politics channel:

Here is a brief update from Talking Points Memo about the state of public opinion polls before the Biden-Ryan debate (2012/10/10):

Fact-checking Websites:

factcheck.org

politifact.com

Veep Debate Violations: Ryan, Biden rough up the facts in their one and only meeting.” (FactCheck, 10/12/2012)

Fact-checking the vice presidential debate.” (PolitiFact, 10/11/2012)

Vice-Presidential Debate Fact-Checks and Updates.“(New York Times)

What Everyone Needs To Know Before Watching The VP Debate.” -Paul Ryans positions and actions prior to the debate, with linked sources. (Think Progress, 10/10/2012)

How to Prime Your BS Detection Skills Before the Presidential Debates.” (Lifehacker, 10/03/2012)

Debate Coverage:

[Op-ed] “Blame Obama For Libya, But Don’t Blame Bush For 9/11.” (Slate, 10/16/2012) – “[T]he Republican Party line [in 2002] was that anyone who accused the president of neglect or deceit was unpatriotic.”

Biden, Ryan Square Off on Foreign Policy, Economy in Debate.” (Wall Street Journal, 10/12/2012)

[Op-ed] “The Vice Presidential Debate: Joe Biden Was Right to Laugh.” (Rolling Stone, 10/12/2012)

Vice presidential debate: 7 takeaways from Danville.” (Politico, 10/12/2012)

6 Must-See Moments from the Vice-Presidential Debate.” (Daily Beast, 10/11/2012)

Biden Pins Ryan Down On Taxes: ‘Oh, Now You’re Jack Kennedy?’” (Talking Points Memo, 10/11/2012)

Biden v. Ryan: The Old Pro Takes On the Lying Kid.” (Alternet, 10/11/2012)

Joe Biden Addresses 47 Percent During Vice Presidential Debate.” (Huffington Post, 10/11/2012)

Joe Biden goes after Paul Ryan in lone VP debate.” (Politico, 10/11/2012)

Joe Biden’s Passion Trumps Paul Ryan at Vice-Presidential Debate” (Daily Beast, 10/11/2012)

[Video] “Woman At VP Debate Calls Obama A Communist.” (Talking Points Memo, 10/11/2012)

5 things to watch in VP debate.” (Politico, 10/11/2012)

Six Things to Watch For in Biden-Ryan Debate.” (New York Times, 10/10/2012)

German Coverage:

US-Wahlkampf: Biden punktet im TV-Duell gegen Ryan.” (Zeit Online, 12.10.2012)

TV-Debatte der Stellvertreter im US-Wahlkampf – Biden dominiert das Unentschieden.” (Süddeutsche Zeitung, 11.10.2012)

Background information:

Pre-Debate, Biden, Ryan Share Lackluster Favorable Ratings.” (Gallup, 10/11/2012)

Vice Presidential Debates Rarely Influence Voters.” (Gallup, 10/10/2012)

[Podcast] “When Veeps Attack.” (My History Can Beat Up Your Politics, 10/07/2012) -A discussion of the history of vice presidents and their challengers in American presidential debates

[Podcast] “How Presidential Debates Work.” (Stuff You Should Know, 11/10/2011)

How Presidential Debates Work.” (HowStuffWorks, 10/13/2000)

German Language Background information:

Das Streben nach Glück – Anspruch und Wirklichkeit: Amerika vor der Wahl.” (Deutschlandradio Kultur, 28.10.2012) – Die Diskussionsrunde nimmt Bezug auf Mark Twains kürzlich nach hundert Jahren der Geheimhaltung veröffentlichten “Geheimen Biographie” sowie David Remnicks Obama-Biographie “Die Brücke – Barack Obama und die Vollendung der schwarzen Bürgerrechtsbewegung”, im Original “The Bridge – The Life and Rise of Barack Obama” (2010).

Debattenkultur: Warum wir Amis keine kritischen Denker sind.” (Zeit Online, 02.10.2012)

Scripted Reality: The 2012 TV Debates Between Romney and Obama

Tonight (October 3, 2012), the first TV debate between President Barack Obama and challenger Mitt Romney in Denver, Colorado was will be broadcast on American TV and on the Internet.

2012 Election Central has a schedule of all upcoming debates here.

The YouTube election hub has a live stream of the debates here.

You can also watch the complete first Obama-Romney debate at the New York Times, which has a nifty running transcript next to the video.

Here is the debate divided into five parts, courtesy of the YouTube Politics channel:

Part 1:

Part 2:

Part 3:

Part 4:

Part 5:

 

Fact-checking:

Suddenly Centrist: The New Moderate Mitt Romney.” (Think Progress, 10/10/2012)

The Lying Precedent.” (New York Times Editorial Page, 10/10/2012) – Not particularly about fact-checking per se, but a compilation of video clips, including ads from the Obama campaign, illustrating how Mitt Romney changes his political positions opportunistically throughout the campaign, from “severely conservative” to “moderate.”

Romney Wants Voters To Believe He’s A Moderate. It’s A Little Late For That.” (The New Republic, 10/08/2012) – Op-Ed arguing the same point as the New York Times editorial above.

At Last Night’s Debate: Romney Told 27 Myths In 38 Minutes.” (Think Progress, 10/04/2012)

Romney Goes On Offense, Pays For It In First Wave Of Fact Checks.” (npr, 10/04/2012)

Fact-checking Websites:

factcheck.org

politifact.com

Fact-checking the Denver presidential debate.” (PolitiFact, 10/03/2012)

How to get the facts during the presidential debate.” (PolitiFact)

Presidential Debate Fact-Check and Updates.” (New York Times)

How to Prime Your BS Detection Skills Before the Presidential Debates.” (Lifehacker, 10/03/2012)

Debate Coverage:

A Clash of Philosophies.” (New York Times, 10/04/2012)

Romney goes on offense, forcing Obama to defend record.” (Washington Post, 10/04/2012)

Romney’s Threat to Big Bird Sows Confusion Abroad, and Feeds It at Home.” (New York Times, 10/05/2012):

“Most Americans think public broadcasting receives a much larger share of the federal budget than it actually does [polls and data linked in article].”

Romney Promises To Cut Taxpayer Funding For PBS (But Says He Still Loves Big Bird).” (Forbes, 10/04/2012):

“That [funding for PBS through the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB)] [i]s less than 1% of the budget. Way less. It’s about 1/100th of a 1%.”

The federal budget in the fiscal year 2011 was $3.69 trillion, according to the New York Times.

Colorado presidential debate: 5 things to watch.” (Politico, 10/03/2012)

Obama and Romney, in First Debate, Spar Over Fixing the Economy.” (New York Times, 10/03/2012)

Obama-Romney Debate: Mitt Romney Stays Light On Detail.” (Huffington Post, 10/03/2012)

Pundits Hammer Obama’s Debate Performance.” (Huffington Post, 10/03/2012)

Romney Backs Away From Own Tax Plan.” (Talking Points Memo, 10/03/2012)

[Poll] “Romney Maintains Economic Edge Heading Into Debates.” (Gallup, 10/03/2012)

German Language Debate Coverage:

Präsidentschaftswahlkampf: Romney punktet im Fernsehduell gegen Obama.” (FAZ, 04.10.2012)

TV-Duell Obama Romney: Präsident ohne Passion.” (Zeit Online, 04.10.2012)

Background information:

[Podcast] “Science and the 2012 Election.” (Point of Inquiry, 10/15/2012)  – A discussion about the candidates’ positions on matters of science

[Podcast] “All That Stuff Before The Debate.” (My History Can Beat Up Your Politics, 09/12/2012) -A discussion about the intensely scripted nature of presidential debates

[Video] “As Obama, Romney Hold First Debate, Behind the Secret GOP-Dem Effort to Shut Out Third Parties.” (Democracy Now, 10/03/2012)

Do the US presidential debates matter?” (BBC News, 10/03/2012)

Election 2012: Your Free Ticket to a Popular Stanford Course.” —Stanford University lets you watch a lecture series about this year’s presidential election and broader themes behind political campaigns in the US (via Open Culture)

First Debate Often Helps Challenger in Polls.” (New York Times, 10/03/2012)

[Audio] “How Politicians Get Away With Dodging The Question.” (npr, 10/03/2012)

[Podcast] “How Presidential Debates Work.” (Stuff You Should Know, 11/10/2011)

How Presidential Debates Work.” (HowStuffWorks, 10/13/2000)

German Language Background Information:

Das Streben nach Glück – Anspruch und Wirklichkeit: Amerika vor der Wahl.” (Deutschlandradio Kultur, 28.10.2012) – Die Diskussionsrunde nimmt Bezug auf Mark Twains kürzlich nach hundert Jahren der Geheimhaltung veröffentlichten “Geheimen Biographie” sowie David Remnicks Obama-Biographie “Die Brücke – Barack Obama und die Vollendung der schwarzen Bürgerrechtsbewegung”, im Original “The Bridge – The Life and Rise of Barack Obama” (2010).

Debattenkultur: Warum wir Amis keine kritischen Denker sind.” (Zeit Online, 02.10.2012)

2012 Presidential Election: A Few More Weeks To Go, What Happened So Far?

With the 2012 Republican and Democratic party conventions behind a few weeks, and still some time to go until the actual presidential elections in November, let’s recapture what happened in the meantime.

After the Democratic National Convention, President Obama’s approval numbers increased slightly, a phenomenon known as the ‘convention bounce’ by pollsters.

Mitt Romney did not reap a convention bounce of that magnitude after the Republican National Convention.

How does the electoral map look after the conventions? Among the important swing states, Virginia and Ohio have become slightly more favorable to Democrats. That means 31 more electoral votes for President Obama.

Talking Points Memo explains (09/20/ 2012):

Read more here.

As Gallup reports, one in five swing state voters may change their vote on election day (09/21/2012).

According to a new CBS poll (09/26/2012), prospects look brighter for Obama at the moment in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida.

According to a new Washington Post poll (09/25/2012), Obama leads in Ohio and Florida.

Coverage of Ohio:

Ohio County A Historic Predictor Of State’s Vote” (npr, 09/29/2012)

Scramble For Ohio Has High Stakes For Romney” (npr, 09/29/2012)

At the same time, in important swing states like Florida or Ohio, a battle is fought over voter registration, with Republicans framing the issue as preventing voter fraud, while Democrats see it as an attempt at disenfranchising minority voters.

Florida’s voter purge explained” (Washington Post, 06/18/2012)

Voter ID laws: the Republican ruse to disenfranchise 5 million Americans” (Guardian, 08/10/2012)

Ohio Lawmaker’s Quest to Fight Voter Disenfranchisement” (PBS, 09/ 20/ 2012)

“GOP Quietly Hires Firm Tied to Voter Fraud Scandal for Work in Battleground States” (The Nation, 09/26/2012)

“RNC cuts ties to firm after voter fraud allegations” (Los Angeles Times, 09/27/2012)

As opposed to the situation in Germany, where there is a mandatory national ID (Personalausweis), which is used for identifying at the polling place, in the American system there is no such mandatory document. Citizens could so far identify with a host of other documents, such as driver’s licenses. Also, German voters do not have to register as supporter of a particular party prior to voting. Instead, they walk into the polling station, identify, and then cast their vote—nobody knows for whom. Thus, in the US, there is an incentive for parties to register as many voters for their side, and potentially to disenfranchise the other side’s supporters.

Here are developments in the Romney campaign, including amusing/worrying bloopers:

During a TV interview with ABC in mid-September, Romney estimated that a household income of $250,000 should be considered a “middle income,” one that would benefit from tax cuts, should he be elected president. In sharp contrast to Romney, the Census Bureau lists as a median income household those in the range of $50,000.

Still, as Gallup reports, one third of lowest income voters support Romney (09/18/2012).

On September 18, a secret recording of Romney at a fundraiser was leaked to Mother Jones magazine, in which Romney characterized 47% of Americans, which he believes are all Obama supporters, as “dependent on the government” and that his job was “not to worry about those people.” The day the recording was released, the Romney campaign put together an emergency press conference at 10:30 pm.

College students, for one, are not amused.

German Coverage:

US-Medien läuten Romneys politisches Ende ein” (Spiegel Online, 18.09.2012)

When the US Ambassador to Lybia and several embassy staff were killed in an attack by radical Islamists after an anti-Islam video went viral, Romney used the occasion to blame President Obama.

At a press conference, while discussing alternative energy sources, Romney praised Adolf Hitler’s idea of using liquified coal as a fuel source. This, of course, does not imply that Romney endorses any other of Hitler’s ideas, but might still be a somewhat unfortunate political move.

On September 19, while giving an interview to Spanish-language TV network Univision, Romney appeared to have tanned in order to appeal to Hispanic voters. Also, a Univision anchor stated that the Romney campaign demanded a favorable audience for the occasion.

On September 27, Mother Jones magazine published an old video of Mitt Romney as CEO of Bain Capital. In this flashback to the 1980s, Romney explains how Bain Capital “harvests” companies for profit.

And here is what happened in the Obama campaign:

Obama has difficulties in getting the approval of military veterans.

On September 23, Obama claimed in a TV interview that “Over the last four years, the deficit has gone up, but 90 percent of that is as a consequence of” President George W. Bush’s policies and the recession.” Fact-checking website PolitiFact rates this as ‘false.’

Indian tribes, with more clout and money, find an ally in Obama” (Los Angeles Times, 09/24/2012)

Obama Against the World” (Mother Jones, 09/24/2012) – How world events beyond Obama’s control might influence his prospects for reelection

A videotape from 2007 of then-Senator Obama after hurricane Katrina saying “the people down in New Orleans, they don’t care about as much” was found. (Politico, 10/02/2012)

10 quotes that haunt President Obama” (Politico, 10/02/2012)

I will do my best to keep up with the news and post updates continuously.

The 2012 DNC Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina

Last week, the RNC finished its party convention in Tampa, Florida. Now it is the Democrats’ turn to present themselves to American voters, nominate their presidential candidate (same as the old), and convince them of their agenda. I will update this post as the convention develops.

Official website: http://www.demconvention.com

On youtube: http://www.youtube.com/DemConvention

Below you can find some of the big speeches given at DNC 2012.

Michelle Obama:

News Coverage:

Michelle Obama DNC speech: Obama’s life makes him understand” (Politico, 9/4/2012)

First Lady to Extol First-Term Record in Convention Kickoff” (New York Times, 9/4/2012)

First lady lauds Obama’s values, vision” (Washington Post, 9/4/2012)

The ‘New Obama’: Michelle Keeps Hope Alive” (New Yorker, 9/5/2012)

German:

Michelle lehrt Amerika die Liebe zu Obama” (Süddeutsche Zeitung, 05.09.2012)

Julian Castro, Mayor of San Antonio:

News Coverage:

Julian Castro: Obama 2004 redux?” (Politico, 9/5/2012)

Charlotte energized by Michelle Obama, Castro” (Politico, 9/4/2012)

Who Is Julián Castro, the Democratic Convention Keynote Speaker?” (The Atlantic, 9/4/2012)

Julián Castro’s Impossible Task” (New Yorker, 9/5/2012)

Democrats appeal to women, Latinos, young people on first night” (Washington Post, 9/4/2012)

Democrats place gay marriage on convention platform” (USATODAY, 9/4/2012)

5 speakers to watch at the Democratic National Convention, Day 1” (Washington Post, 9/4/2012)

DNC 2012 Speakers and Keynotes in Charlotte, N.C.” (Politico, 9/3/2012)

Bill Clinton:

News Coverage:

Anatomy of a Speech: Bill Clinton” (New York Times, 9/5/2012)

Clinton Delivers Stirring Plea for Obama Second Term” (New York Times, 9/6/2012)

[Chart] “Conventional wisdom: A comparison of key words spoken by the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates during their convention speeches” (Washington Post, 9/6/2012)

In a Barn-Burning Speech, Bill Clinton Leaves Romney-Ryan Bleeding on the Ground” (Alternet, 9/5/2012)

Five Takeaways From Wednesday At The Democratic Convention” (NPR, 9/6/2012)

[Podcast] Common Sense with Dan Carlin #236 – “Trapped by the Inflexible Mind” (9/6/2012)—”Jobs are the main subject of both the Democratic and Republican National Conventions, but Dan explains why both parties refuse to discuss the real reason good jobs are in such scarce supply.”

German:

Parteitag in Charlotte: US-Demokraten nominieren Barack Obama” (Zeit Online, 06.09.2012)

‘Lasst Obama im Amt’” (taz, 06.09.2012)

Barack Obama:

News Coverage:

Obama convention speech: Downsizing the dream” (Politico, 9/7/2012)

Why Obama’s Speech Was Dull” (The Atlantic, 9/7/2012)

Barack Obama Speech At 2012 Democratic National Convention: Perseverance Replaces Change” (Huffington Post, 9/6/2012)

In Democratic convention speech, Obama vows ‘our problems can be solved’ — with more time” (Washington Post, 9/7/2012)

Obama convention speech: Downsizing the dream” (Politico, 9/7/2012)

Obama Presses Plan to Revive Economy at Convention” (Wall St. Journal, 9/7/2012)

German:

[Podcast] “Obama gegen Obama? Wahlkampf eines entzauberten Präsidenten” (hr2 Der Tag, 06.09.2012)

Joe Biden, Vice President:

Fact-checking of DNC speakers:

Clinton And Other Dems Did Some Cherry-Picking, Fact Checkers Say” (NPR, 9/6/2012)

Democrats Unleashed Some ‘Dubious Or Misleading Claims,’ Fact Checkers Say” (NPR, 9/5/2012)

Democratic Disinformation from Charlotte” (PolitiFact, 9/5/2012)

Day 2: More Convention Canards” (PolitiFact, 9/5/2012)

Bill Clinton’s night at the Democratic convention” (PolitiFact, 9/5/2012)

On final night in Charlotte, Obama takes the stage” (PolitiFact, 9/6/2012)

A Selection of Speakers at the RNC Convention in Tampa, Florida

The Republican National Committee just officially nominated Mitt Romney as the Republican presidential candidate. But besides Romney and Paul Ryan, a variety of conservative speakers were trying to get their message across. Here is a selection of speeches, including the big one by Romney. I also collected some commentary and fact-checks of Romney’s and Ryan’s speeches.

Mitt Romney:

Commentary on Romney’s nomination:

Greed and Debt: The True Story of Mitt Romney and Bain Capital” (Rolling Stone, 8/29/2012)

Mitt Romney, Capitalist Saint” (The Atlantic)

“Mitt Romney’s acceptance speech – RNC as it happened” (Guardian)

“Mr. Romney Reinvents History” (New York Times)

“Romney’s Speech: The Softer Side of a Hard-Right Campaign” (Mother Jones)

Romney Vows to ‘Restore’ U.S.” (Wall Street Journal)

“The presidency: So, Mitt, what do you really believe?” (Economist)

“Why 2008 Obama is Mitt Romney’s best friend” (Washington Post)

German language coverage of Mitt Romney and the RNC Convention:

“Die Krönung ist vollbracht” (taz, 31.08.2012)

Was von Romneys Getöse übrig bleibt” (Süddeutsche Zeitung, 31.08.2012)

Nach dem Republikaner-Parteitag: Romneys simple Botschaft” (FAZ, 31.08.2012)

Romney gegen Obama: Schlacht um Amerika” (FAZ, 31.08.2012)

Podcast (.mp3): “Gläubig, konservativ und stinkreich? Obamas Herausforderer” (hr2 Der Tag, 28.08.2012)

Du gehörst hier nicht hin” (Über dem Umgang des RNC mit Anhängern von Ron Paul) (taz, 30.08.2012)

“God, Guns and Gays” (taz, 29.08.2012)

Fact-checking of Romney’s speech:

FACTS MATTER: The Ultimate Guide To Mitt Romney’s Convention Speech” (Think Progress)

“Facts Take a Beating in Acceptance Speeches” (New York Times)

Romney’s Big Night” (Fact-Check.org)

Mitt Romney page at PolitiFact

Paul Ryan:

Commentary on the factuality of Ryan’s speech:

“6 Worst Lies In Paul Ryan’s Speech” (Think Progress)

“Did Paul Ryan bend the truth? And does it matter?” (Washington Post)

The Caucus: Fact-Checking Ryan’s Convention Speech” (New York Times)

How The Media Soft-Plays Paul Ryan’s Lies: ‘Factual Shortcuts,’ ‘Perceived Inaccuracies,’ ‘Questionable Claims’” (Think Progress)

Paul Ryan Has Some Fibs He Just Isn’t Willing To Give Up” (Slate)

Ryan’s Most Outrageous Claim” (Think Progress)

“Ryan’s VP Spin” (Fact-Check.org)

The Paul Ryan Speech: Five Hypocrisies” (New Yorker)

“Wednesday night at the GOP convention: the running mate and more” (PolitiFact)

Why the GOP loves Ryan’s ‘deceiving’ speech” (Politico)

Paul Ryan page at PolitiFact

German language coverage of Paul Ryan:

“Alles Obamas Schuld!” (taz, 30.08.2012)

Ann Romney:

Reince Priebus, RNC Chairman:

John Boehner, House Speaker:

Chris Cristie, Governor of New Jersey:

Clint Eastwood:

Commentary:

If Clint Eastwood is Mitt Romney’s Secret RNC Speaker, It’ll Be No Surprise” (Think Progress, 8/30/2012)

Politics of Clint Eastwood’s empty chair” (CNN, 9/3/2012)

(German): “Wahlkampf für US-Republikaner – Clint Eastwood spricht mit leerem Stuhl” (Süddeutsche Zeitung, 31.08.2012)

Condoleezza Rice:

GOP Primary All-Stars:

Rick Santorum:

Mike Huckabee:

Newt & Callista Gingrich:

News Coverage of the RNC Convention In General:

Five Takeaways From Tuesday At The Republican Convention” (NPR, 8/29/2012)

Key Speeches From the Republican National Convention” (New York Times, 8/29/2012)

The 2012 Party Platforms

Party platforms outline how a political party sees itself at a certain moment in time. They are a document of what the party in question wants to stand for. In the US, political parties publish their platforms every four years prior to the presidential election.

News coverage:

Party Platforms Are Poles Apart in Their View of the Nation” (New York Times, 9/4/2012)

Here is the 2012 Democratic Party platform.

Key Points:

  • support of same-sex marriage (for the first time)
  • opposition to privatization of Medicare
  • opposition to privatization of Social Security
  • language dropped that says Jerusalem is the capital of Israel (because Palestinians also claim it as future capital)UPDATE (9/5/2012): Democrats put back in the notion that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, and a reference to God, after three (!) rounds of not-so-clear voice votes. Watch it here:http://youtu.be/bjdj6K3yoR8

    This happened after intense criticism from the Romney camp. The official US position is that the final status of Jerusalem is still a matter of negotiations. This is also why the US and other states have their embassies in Tel Aviv. Barack Obama, however, has voices his belief that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel.  Within the context of US elections, the new Democratic position is to be seen as an attempt to court conservative Jewish voters and Christian Zionists.”Democrats add Jerusalem and God to 2012 platform” (The Raw Story, 9/5/2012)
    Democrats reinstate “God” and Jerusalem language in party platform” (CBS, 9/5/2012)
    Democrats Restore Language Declaring Jerusalem Israel’s Capital” (New York Times, 9/5/2012)

The Republican Party discussed is currently discussing their latest political platform at the RNC convention in Tampa, Florida. It is available here not yet available.

Prior to its release, the New York Times already has some information concerning its content here and here. It is generally considered to be more conservative than previous platforms.

Key Points:

  • banning all forms of abortion
  • banning pornography (read about it here)
  • opposing Shari’a law (read about it here)

Over at the American Presidency Project, you may read the 2012 party platforms and earlier documents. Here is the 2008 GOP platform, and here is the 2008 Democratic platform. And even though elections mostly come down to a contest between Democrats and Republicans, there are third parties in the US, and they do have platforms, too.

Read the 2012 platforms of the Green Party here, Constitution Party here, and of the Libertarian Party here.

While observers are waiting for Mitt Romney’s big acceptance speech at the GOP convention, here is a flashback to April of this year, when Romney won the Republican primaries:

UPDATE: You can see Romney’s acceptance speech and more on the RNC convention in this blog post.

American Voters’ Priorities in 2012 (Gallup Poll)

A Gallup/USA Today poll from July 30, 2012 found that American voters overall see the following issues as top priorities (rated ‘Extremely/Very Important’) in the upcoming presidential election:

  1. jobs (92%)
  2. reducing corruption in the federal government (87%)
  3. reducing the federal budget deficit (86%)
  4. dealing with terrorism and other international threats (86%)
  5. securing Medicare and Social Security in the long term (85%)
  6. improving public schools (83%)

The full list is longer and features more items.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment has declined slightly since 2010:

July 2008: 5.8%
July 2009: 9.5%
July 2010: 9.5%
July 2011: 9.1%
July 2012: 8.3%

John C. Hulsman on the Upcoming 2012 U.S. Presidential Election and U.S. Foreign Policy

This Tuesday [March 27, 2012] I attended a talk on “The Upcoming U.S. Presidential Elections and U.S. Foreign Policy” by Dr. John C. Hulsman, who is a Senior Research Fellow at the The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS). The talk was held at the Bibliotheca Albertina, the main university library in Leipzig, and presented by the AmCham Forum of the American Chamber of Commerce in Germany.

Hulsman, who described himself as a left-leaning Republican, has worked for a number of think tanks, among them the bipartisan Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, the conservative Heritage Foundation, and the German Council on Foreign Relations.

In his talk, Hulsman argued that five issues were crucial to current developments in US foreign policy:

  • the decline of the US economy
  • the decline of the European economies
  • the Arab Spring
  • rising powers such as India and China
  • the question of an Iranian nuclear program

Elections and Political Views in the US

Concerning the elections, Hulsman said that polls show that more more Americans consider themselves conservatives [He was probably talking about this Gallup poll].

Independent Voters in the US

Presidential elections in the US, Hulsman mentioned, are won by courting independent voters, who are neither attached to Democrats or Republicans.

These independents are disaffected and are most concerned about the economy.

In 2008, independents were largely for Barack Obama. Before the crash of investment bank Lehman Brothers, however, John McCain was ahead of Obama in the polls with independents.

In 2010, independents swung back to Republicans, mainly because of opposition to the Obama administration’s health care reform bill.

To independents, Hulsman explained, the health care reform was another ‘entitlement,’ which they dislike, and they felt that their main concern—the economy—was neglected.

[Here is a Pew poll from April 2012 on general election preferences.]

Economic Troubles Illustrated

To illustrate the severity of economic troubles in the US, Hulsman gave these examples:

One third of Americans have no retirement savings. When the Social Security system was initiated, life expectancy was much lower than today. During the 1990s, many who owned real estate, such as a house, felt this was securing their retirement.

One fourth of all homes in the US are now ‘underwater,’ meaning that homeowners owe the bank more in mortgage than the house is worth on the market. The house thus loses saving potential and becomes a drag for the owner. Hulsman said that the Hayekian idea (after classical liberal Austrian economist Friedrich August von Hayek) would have been to just leave the keys and get out of the house.

One fifth of all savings were wiped out during the financial crash that started in late 2007. Hulsman stressed that in a federal system such as that of the US, it is important to examine the respective figures for state and local levels to get the full scope of the financial crisis’ impact.

If the US economy would not grow by eight per cent, it would not be able to cushion these problems.

Anger at Washington and the Labor Market

Hulsman explained that part of the general dissatisfaction of voters with the Washington establishment is the great disparity of experiences in the labor market.

Jobs within the Washington political class are generally very secure, and it is hard to get fired. On the other hand, regular employees and workers get fired very easily in the US, compared to Germany.

The economic difficulties of the US, Huntsman noted, might produce a spillover effect with ramifications for foreign policy, due to constraints on the federal budget. The high costs of war and nation-building [see below] come under closer scrutiny in this climate.

The Republican Primaries in Early 2012

In January 2012, Mitt Romney was twenty points ahead with independents in the polls.

This time, more Republican primaries allocate their delegates proportionally.

By doing so, they adopt the Democratic system of primaries, wherein two candidates fight for the nomination.

Splitting the Republican Vote with Culture Wars

A problem for Republicans in their relationship with independent voters is their focus on ‘culture war’ issues such as abortion, contraception, and the separation of church and state. For instance, Rick Santorum has put the issues of contraception and state-church separation front and center in his campaign. This does not fit well with independents, who worry most about the economy.

As of March 2012, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich are splitting the conservative vote. This is beneficial to Mitt Romney, who is considered the more socially moderate Republican candidate.

Romney, Hulsman noted, does not like to talk about social issues. He is simultaneously forced to move to the right o social issues in order to appease conservatives, while trying to avoid alienating independents.

Hulsman bets his money on Romney becoming the Republican nominee in the end.

Obama’s campaign narrative to counter Romney will be that he stopped the ‘Great Depression.’

Partisan Differences in Foreign Policy

How would Republicans and Democrats differ on foreign policy?

Hulsman said that Republicans are always to the right of Obama and the Democrats, for instance on the issue of Israel.

Current Challenges in US Foreign Policy

Dealing with a Multipolar World

An ongoing general challenge for the US is how to deal with the new multipolar world, exemplified by the rise of countries such as Brazil, India, China, South Africa, or Malaysia.

The European financial crisis the tensions with Iran are examples of issues that the US cannot control alone. This is a new situation for the US and makes the Obama administration nervous.

The Arab Spring

Hulsman was skeptical about the long-term success of the Arab Spring, saying that he viewed it in Burkeian terms. History shows, he said, that the most well-organized groups prevail in revolutions. In Egypt, this would be the Muslim Brotherhood and the army. While Hulsman was optimistic about the situation in Tunesia, he had a very bleak outlook about developments in Syria.

Obama’s foreign policy style, Hulsman held, is basically one that focuses on limiting losses.

Iran, the US, and Israel

Hulsman noted that the US government realizes its own security interest does not equal Israeli security interest, even if both are close allies.

To illustrate this point, Hulsman explained that the US and Israel have different red lines in considering military action against Iran.

For Israel, an Iranian capability to build a nuclear weapon would be a reason to attack. For the US, the actual possession of nuclear weapons would be that flashpoint.

In Israel, the hawkish faction around Ehud Barak, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Avigdor Liebermann want a military strike, but cannot get a majority of the population behind them without US support.

In addition, several former Mossad chiefs have publicly argued against attacking Iran.

In the US, public opinion is such that 75% strongly support Israel, but also do not want a unilateral strike. In Israel, the number concerning a unilateral strike is similar.

If Iran would at some point in the future have a nuclear weapon, nuclear proliferation would spread throughout the Middle East, especially the gulf states.

A bombing of Iran would have terrible results, according to Hulsman. If Israel attacked Iran unilaterally, that would perhaps set back the Iranian nuclear program for a year. But the high price to pay would be that hope for peace in the Middle East would be gone for a generation. Already now, an Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz has caused a spike in oil prices.

Currently, Washington talks to Tel Aviv to convince the Israelis to get more time to let the sanctions on Iran work.

Hulsman told the audience to behold the coming September, because the chance of a military strike at this time would be fifty-fifty.

Afghanistan

Concerning Afghanistan, Hulsman, who is opposed to neoconservatives, held that it was a case of failed nation building, with a cost of $ 1 million per soldier per year. He said that failed nation builders always claim they need more time and money.

The US, the EU, and Global Influence

On the US as a global ordering power via the EU, Hulsman said that if the EU wants to play a greater role, it needs to spend more on defense. He said that the US cross-subsidizes European defense, while European nations spend very few on defense, and more on their social systems.

Here is a video from the US Embassy in Germany featuring John C. Hulsman talking about the 2012 elections: